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Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming.

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Title: Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming.
Authors: Chaudhary, Nitin1,2 (AUTHOR) nitin.chaudhary@mgeo.lu.se, Tuovinen, Juha‐Pekka3 (AUTHOR), Kou, Dan4 (AUTHOR), Deb Burman, Pramit Kumar5,6 (AUTHOR), Lodh, Abhishek1,7 (AUTHOR), Lamba, Shubhangi8 (AUTHOR), Shurpali, Narasinha9 (AUTHOR), Schurgers, Guy10 (AUTHOR), Page, Susan E.11 (AUTHOR), Westermann, Sebastian12,13 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Wenxin1,14 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences. Apr2026, Vol. 131 Issue 4, p1-13. 13p.
Subject Terms: *Peatlands, *Global warming, *Radiative forcing, *Greenhouse gases, *Greenhouse gas mitigation, *Carbon sequestration, *Carbon cycle
Abstract: Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long‐term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming‐induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon‐rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we modeled the past and future trends of peatland carbon and methane fluxes and their influence on the climate system. We found that peatlands >25°N will remain a carbon sink and methane source under a low‐warming scenario (RCP2.6), but they would shift from being not only a source of methane but also a source of carbon dioxide under a high‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) by the mid‐21st century leading to a strong radiative forcing (0.25 W m−2) by the end of the 23rd century. This underlines the potential warming feedback in which peatland radiative forcing on the climate system would shift from negative to positive in the future. Plain Language Summary: Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long‐term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming‐induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon‐rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we examined how peatlands, which store large amounts of carbon and release methane, impact the climate. Peatlands north of 25°N will continue to absorb carbon and release methane if global warming remains low. However, under more extreme warming, these peatlands could begin releasing both carbon dioxide and methane by the mid‐21st century, significantly increasing warming by the 23rd century. This shift suggests that peatlands, which currently help cool the climate, could eventually contribute to further warming. Key Points: Over millennia, peatlands have stored carbon, released methane, and overall slightly cooled the EarthUnder low warming, peatlands keep absorbing CO2, while still releasing some CH4, so they continue to have an overall cooling effectUnder strong warming, peatlands start releasing both CO2, and CH4, so instead of cooling the climate they make it warmer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Abstract:Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long‐term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming‐induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon‐rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we modeled the past and future trends of peatland carbon and methane fluxes and their influence on the climate system. We found that peatlands >25°N will remain a carbon sink and methane source under a low‐warming scenario (RCP2.6), but they would shift from being not only a source of methane but also a source of carbon dioxide under a high‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) by the mid‐21st century leading to a strong radiative forcing (0.25 W m−2) by the end of the 23rd century. This underlines the potential warming feedback in which peatland radiative forcing on the climate system would shift from negative to positive in the future. Plain Language Summary: Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long‐term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming‐induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon‐rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we examined how peatlands, which store large amounts of carbon and release methane, impact the climate. Peatlands north of 25°N will continue to absorb carbon and release methane if global warming remains low. However, under more extreme warming, these peatlands could begin releasing both carbon dioxide and methane by the mid‐21st century, significantly increasing warming by the 23rd century. This shift suggests that peatlands, which currently help cool the climate, could eventually contribute to further warming. Key Points: Over millennia, peatlands have stored carbon, released methane, and overall slightly cooled the EarthUnder low warming, peatlands keep absorbing CO2, while still releasing some CH4, so they continue to have an overall cooling effectUnder strong warming, peatlands start releasing both CO2, and CH4, so instead of cooling the climate they make it warmer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:21698953
DOI:10.1029/2025JG009540