Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in the UK
Saved in:
| Title: | Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in the UK |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Angus, A.1, Casado, M. Rivas1 m.rivas-casado@cranfield.ac.uk, Fitzsimons, D.2 |
| Source: | Resources, Conservation & Recycling. Mar2012, Vol. 60, p10-19. 10p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Waste recycling, Econometric models, Market volatility, Statistical correlation, Export marketing, Performance evaluation, Regression analysis |
| Geographic Terms: | United Kingdom |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The price volatility of recycled materials exposes many different organisations to financial and regulatory risk. These risks can be partially mitigated by improved understanding of price volatility using econometric models, although these have tended to be sophisticated autoregressive models, beyond the analytical capability or cost structure of the average market participant. In this context, this study explores the use of a simple linear regression model to understand the behaviour of prices for recycled plastic, recovered paper and glass, based on the price of their primary inputs, with a specific focus on the UK market. The results of the simple regression model are compared with a wavelet analysis to determine what information is lost in the trade off with simplicity. Both models found significant relationships between the price of crude oil/ethylene/naphtha and recycled plastics and it appears that there is no loss in model performance by using oil as the explanatory variable, rather than direct inputs (ethylene/naphtha). However, few correlations were found for recovered paper and glass. Initial findings from the wavelet analysis suggest that since 2004 the oil price has become more closely linked to the price of recycled plastics. It must be noted that this study is exploratory and particular dynamics of UK markets for recycled materials may affect price development in a way that would not be repeated on international markets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier] |
| Copyright of Resources, Conservation & Recycling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | GreenFILE |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
|---|---|
| Header | DbId: 8gh DbLabel: GreenFILE An: 71951821 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
| IllustrationInfo | |
| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in the UK – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Angus%2C+A%2E%22">Angus, A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Casado%2C+M%2E+Rivas%22">Casado, M. Rivas</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> m.rivas-casado@cranfield.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fitzsimons%2C+D%2E%22">Fitzsimons, D.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Resources%2C+Conservation+%26+Recycling%22">Resources, Conservation & Recycling</searchLink>. Mar2012, Vol. 60, p10-19. 10p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Waste+recycling%22">Waste recycling</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Econometric+models%22">Econometric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Market+volatility%22">Market volatility</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+correlation%22">Statistical correlation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Export+marketing%22">Export marketing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Performance+evaluation%22">Performance evaluation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Regression+analysis%22">Regression analysis</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+Kingdom%22">United Kingdom</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Abstract: The price volatility of recycled materials exposes many different organisations to financial and regulatory risk. These risks can be partially mitigated by improved understanding of price volatility using econometric models, although these have tended to be sophisticated autoregressive models, beyond the analytical capability or cost structure of the average market participant. In this context, this study explores the use of a simple linear regression model to understand the behaviour of prices for recycled plastic, recovered paper and glass, based on the price of their primary inputs, with a specific focus on the UK market. The results of the simple regression model are compared with a wavelet analysis to determine what information is lost in the trade off with simplicity. Both models found significant relationships between the price of crude oil/ethylene/naphtha and recycled plastics and it appears that there is no loss in model performance by using oil as the explanatory variable, rather than direct inputs (ethylene/naphtha). However, few correlations were found for recovered paper and glass. Initial findings from the wavelet analysis suggest that since 2004 the oil price has become more closely linked to the price of recycled plastics. It must be noted that this study is exploratory and particular dynamics of UK markets for recycled materials may affect price development in a way that would not be repeated on international markets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Resources, Conservation & Recycling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=8gh&AN=71951821 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.10.011 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 10 StartPage: 10 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Waste recycling Type: general – SubjectFull: Econometric models Type: general – SubjectFull: Market volatility Type: general – SubjectFull: Statistical correlation Type: general – SubjectFull: Export marketing Type: general – SubjectFull: Performance evaluation Type: general – SubjectFull: Regression analysis Type: general – SubjectFull: United Kingdom Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in the UK Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Angus, A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Casado, M. Rivas – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Fitzsimons, D. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 03 Text: Mar2012 Type: published Y: 2012 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 09213449 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 60 Titles: – TitleFull: Resources, Conservation & Recycling Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
