Assessing Multi-Hazard Risks And Impacts Of Compound Climate And Weather Extreme Events For Socio-Economic Risk Management
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| Title: | Assessing Multi-Hazard Risks And Impacts Of Compound Climate And Weather Extreme Events For Socio-Economic Risk Management |
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| Authors: | Ali, Javed |
| Committee Members: | Wahl, Thomas |
| Summary: | In recent decades, compound climate and weather extremes, events driven by multiple drivers such as precipitation, storm surge, river discharge, and waves, have increasingly affected coastal regions, causing severe impacts on human life, infrastructure, ecosystems, and economies. Traditional risk assessments often underestimate these compound events by focusing on individual drivers independently. This dissertation provides a systematic assessment of multi-hazard risks and socio-economic consequences associated with compound events in the coastal counties along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. It introduces and applies a novel bottom-up impact-based methodology to assess the role of compound events in causing socio-economic losses in the U.S. East and Gulf coastal counties. By combining historical socio-economic loss data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database (SHELDUS) with reanalysis and observational data sets of hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic drivers, this dissertation identifies which natural hazards were predominantly compound events. We first applied the framework in Miami-Dade County and found that approximately 99% of flood-related property damage and 98% of crop damage during 1979 to 2019 were linked to compound hazards. The impact-based approach was further improved and applied in 203 coastal counties to study the impacts and drivers of compound flooding. Results show that about 80% of recorded flooding events between 1980 to 2018 were compound, with compound flooding causing over 80% of total property and crop losses in most counties, with median losses being significantly higher (over 76 times for crop losses and over 26 times for property losses) compared to univariate events. A multivariate clustering analysis further highlights distinct regional patterns of compound flood drivers, emphasizing the varying relevance of meteorological and oceanographic processes. The research iv also identified substantial spatial variability in the relationship between peak magnitudes and intensities of extreme sea level events across the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, highlighting that conventional, univariate risk assessments significantly underestimate actual coastal flooding risk. These findings emphasize the importance of adopting an integrated, multi-driver, impact-based frameworks in hazard assessment, helping communities better plan for climate adaptation planning, improve resilience measures, and protect critical infrastructure in vulnerable coastal regions. |
| URL: | https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd2024/96 |
| Database: | OpenDissertations |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, compound climate and weather extremes, events driven by multiple drivers such as precipitation, storm surge, river discharge, and waves, have increasingly affected coastal regions, causing severe impacts on human life, infrastructure, ecosystems, and economies. Traditional risk assessments often underestimate these compound events by focusing on individual drivers independently. This dissertation provides a systematic assessment of multi-hazard risks and socio-economic consequences associated with compound events in the coastal counties along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. It introduces and applies a novel bottom-up impact-based methodology to assess the role of compound events in causing socio-economic losses in the U.S. East and Gulf coastal counties. By combining historical socio-economic loss data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database (SHELDUS) with reanalysis and observational data sets of hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic drivers, this dissertation identifies which natural hazards were predominantly compound events. We first applied the framework in Miami-Dade County and found that approximately 99% of flood-related property damage and 98% of crop damage during 1979 to 2019 were linked to compound hazards. The impact-based approach was further improved and applied in 203 coastal counties to study the impacts and drivers of compound flooding. Results show that about 80% of recorded flooding events between 1980 to 2018 were compound, with compound flooding causing over 80% of total property and crop losses in most counties, with median losses being significantly higher (over 76 times for crop losses and over 26 times for property losses) compared to univariate events. A multivariate clustering analysis further highlights distinct regional patterns of compound flood drivers, emphasizing the varying relevance of meteorological and oceanographic processes. The research iv also identified substantial spatial variability in the relationship between peak magnitudes and intensities of extreme sea level events across the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, highlighting that conventional, univariate risk assessments significantly underestimate actual coastal flooding risk. These findings emphasize the importance of adopting an integrated, multi-driver, impact-based frameworks in hazard assessment, helping communities better plan for climate adaptation planning, improve resilience measures, and protect critical infrastructure in vulnerable coastal regions. |
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