Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization.

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Bibliographic Details
Title:	Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization.
Authors:	Dang Luo¹, Baolei Wei¹ weibaolei_20I4@I63.com
Source:	Journal of Grey System. 2017, Vol. 29 Issue 3, p58-69. 12p.
Subjects:	Gray forecasting model, Polynomials, Mathematical optimization, Mathematical sequences, Statistical smoothing
Abstract:	A novel grey forecasting model named GMP(1,1,N) model aimed to enlarge the suitable ranges is proposed in this paper. GM(1,1) model, NGM(1,1,k) model and GM(1,1, ta) model prove to be special cases of GMP(1,1,N) model with different polynomial orders. Moreover, a criterion for determining polynomial order is given out based on the stepwise ratio sequences for practical application. In order to further improve forecasting performance, the initial condition is optimized using least square method. Finally, an empirical example about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry output forecasting is used to illustrate the accuracy. As comparing with exponential smoothing method, DGM(1,1,N) model and GANBGMfl, I) model, the results indicate that the proposed model is belter than other three models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database:	Engineering Source

Description
Abstract:	A novel grey forecasting model named GMP(1,1,N) model aimed to enlarge the suitable ranges is proposed in this paper. GM(1,1) model, NGM(1,1,k) model and GM(1,1, ta) model prove to be special cases of GMP(1,1,N) model with different polynomial orders. Moreover, a criterion for determining polynomial order is given out based on the stepwise ratio sequences for practical application. In order to further improve forecasting performance, the initial condition is optimized using least square method. Finally, an empirical example about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry output forecasting is used to illustrate the accuracy. As comparing with exponential smoothing method, DGM(1,1,N) model and GANBGMfl, I) model, the results indicate that the proposed model is belter than other three models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:	09573720