Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization.
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| Title: | Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization. |
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| Authors: | Dang Luo1, Baolei Wei1 weibaolei_20I4@I63.com |
| Source: | Journal of Grey System. 2017, Vol. 29 Issue 3, p58-69. 12p. |
| Subjects: | Gray forecasting model, Polynomials, Mathematical optimization, Mathematical sequences, Statistical smoothing |
| Abstract: | A novel grey forecasting model named GMP(1,1,N) model aimed to enlarge the suitable ranges is proposed in this paper. GM(1,1) model, NGM(1,1,k) model and GM(1,1, ta) model prove to be special cases of GMP(1,1,N) model with different polynomial orders. Moreover, a criterion for determining polynomial order is given out based on the stepwise ratio sequences for practical application. In order to further improve forecasting performance, the initial condition is optimized using least square method. Finally, an empirical example about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry output forecasting is used to illustrate the accuracy. As comparing with exponential smoothing method, DGM(1,1,N) model and GANBGMfl, I) model, the results indicate that the proposed model is belter than other three models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Grey System is the property of Research Information Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 124888595 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dang+Luo%22">Dang Luo</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Baolei+Wei%22">Baolei Wei</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> weibaolei_20I4@I63.com</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Grey+System%22">Journal of Grey System</searchLink>. 2017, Vol. 29 Issue 3, p58-69. 12p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gray+forecasting+model%22">Gray forecasting model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Polynomials%22">Polynomials</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+optimization%22">Mathematical optimization</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+sequences%22">Mathematical sequences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+smoothing%22">Statistical smoothing</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: A novel grey forecasting model named GMP(1,1,N) model aimed to enlarge the suitable ranges is proposed in this paper. GM(1,1) model, NGM(1,1,k) model and GM(1,1, ta) model prove to be special cases of GMP(1,1,N) model with different polynomial orders. Moreover, a criterion for determining polynomial order is given out based on the stepwise ratio sequences for practical application. In order to further improve forecasting performance, the initial condition is optimized using least square method. Finally, an empirical example about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry output forecasting is used to illustrate the accuracy. As comparing with exponential smoothing method, DGM(1,1,N) model and GANBGMfl, I) model, the results indicate that the proposed model is belter than other three models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Grey System is the property of Research Information Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 12 StartPage: 58 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Gray forecasting model Type: general – SubjectFull: Polynomials Type: general – SubjectFull: Mathematical optimization Type: general – SubjectFull: Mathematical sequences Type: general – SubjectFull: Statistical smoothing Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Optimization. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dang Luo – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Baolei Wei IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 07 Text: 2017 Type: published Y: 2017 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 09573720 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 29 – Type: issue Value: 3 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Grey System Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
