View in EDS

Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion.
Authors: Zaveri, Esha1 ezaveri@worldbank.org, Russ, Jason1, Damania, Richard1
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 5/12/2020, Vol. 117 Issue 19, p1-9. 9p.
Subjects: Rainfall anomalies, Farms, Panel analysis, Developing countries, Climate change
Abstract: Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is the property of National Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:00278424
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1910719117