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Predicting the occurrence of natural and technological disasters in Greece through Verhulst, multinomial and exponential models.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Predicting the occurrence of natural and technological disasters in Greece through Verhulst, multinomial and exponential models.
Authors: Mavrakis, Anastasios1 (AUTHOR) mavrakisan@yahoo.gr, Lykoudis, Spyridon2 (AUTHOR), Salvati, Luca3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Safety Science. Oct2023, Vol. 166, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Natural disasters, Emergency management, Communities, Time perspective, Databases
Geographic Terms: Greece
Abstract: • This is a novel framework for estimating the number of future disasters in Greece. • The approach is used in population and mixed biometric-econometric studies. • This information is important for policy makers and planning authorities. • The approach improved the preparedness of risk management plans. A rising number and variety of hazards has threatened local communities, possibly leading to disasters that are cause of important (human and economic) losses across regions and countries. As a consequence, both preparedness and management of hazard risk emerged as relevant issues in advanced economies. The present study proposes an original framework to estimate the number of future disasters in Greece using the Emergency Database (EM-DAT) as primary data. This information is vital to adopt precaution measures and design official plans for the protection of resident population. For this purpose, a logistic model based on Verhulst equations was tested here – using multinomial and exponential models as computational alternatives – on a complete database considering disasters occurred in Greece between 1904 and 2020. The outcomes of all models have documented the increasing frequency of all kinds of disasters over time. Predictions covering a time horizon that includes the 2020 s estimated the occurrence of 1 to 9 disasters per year as a whole (1 to 6 events per year for natural disasters and 1 to 3 events per year for technological disasters). These findings justify the urgent need of effective policies improving preparedness of local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:• This is a novel framework for estimating the number of future disasters in Greece. • The approach is used in population and mixed biometric-econometric studies. • This information is important for policy makers and planning authorities. • The approach improved the preparedness of risk management plans. A rising number and variety of hazards has threatened local communities, possibly leading to disasters that are cause of important (human and economic) losses across regions and countries. As a consequence, both preparedness and management of hazard risk emerged as relevant issues in advanced economies. The present study proposes an original framework to estimate the number of future disasters in Greece using the Emergency Database (EM-DAT) as primary data. This information is vital to adopt precaution measures and design official plans for the protection of resident population. For this purpose, a logistic model based on Verhulst equations was tested here – using multinomial and exponential models as computational alternatives – on a complete database considering disasters occurred in Greece between 1904 and 2020. The outcomes of all models have documented the increasing frequency of all kinds of disasters over time. Predictions covering a time horizon that includes the 2020 s estimated the occurrence of 1 to 9 disasters per year as a whole (1 to 6 events per year for natural disasters and 1 to 3 events per year for technological disasters). These findings justify the urgent need of effective policies improving preparedness of local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:09257535
DOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106246