Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations.
Saved in:
| Title: | Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Moore, Andrew1 (AUTHOR) andrew.moore@noaa.gov |
| Source: | Weather & Forecasting. Jul2024, Vol. 39 Issue 7, p1065-1086. 22p. |
| Subjects: | Thunderstorms, Microbursts, Electric lines, Wind speed, Property damage |
| Abstract: | Short-lived and poorly organized convective cells, often called weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), are a common phenomenon during the warm season across the eastern and southeastern United States. While typically benign, wet downbursts emanating from such convection can have substantial societal impacts, including tree, power line, and property damage from strong outflow winds. Observational studies have documented the occurrence of severe (25.7 m s−1 or higher) wind speeds from wet downbursts, but the frequency of severe downbursts, including the spatial extent and temporal duration of severe winds, remains unclear. The ability for modern observing networks to reliably observe such events is also unknown; however, answering these questions is important for improving forecast skill and verifying convective warnings accurately. This study attempts to answer these questions by drawing statistical inferences from 97 high-resolution idealized simulations of single-cell downburst events. It was found that while 35% of the simulations featured severe winds, the spatial and temporal extent of such winds is limited—O(10) km2 or less and persisting for around 5 min on average. Furthermore, through a series of simulated network experiments, it is postulated that the probability that a modern mesonet observes a severe wind gust given a severe downburst is around 1%. From these results, a statistical argument is made that most tree impacts associated with pulse convection are likely caused by subsevere winds. Several implications for forecasting, warning, and verifying WFT events fall out from these discussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
|
Full text is not displayed to guests.
Login for full access.
|
|
| Abstract: | Short-lived and poorly organized convective cells, often called weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), are a common phenomenon during the warm season across the eastern and southeastern United States. While typically benign, wet downbursts emanating from such convection can have substantial societal impacts, including tree, power line, and property damage from strong outflow winds. Observational studies have documented the occurrence of severe (25.7 m s−1 or higher) wind speeds from wet downbursts, but the frequency of severe downbursts, including the spatial extent and temporal duration of severe winds, remains unclear. The ability for modern observing networks to reliably observe such events is also unknown; however, answering these questions is important for improving forecast skill and verifying convective warnings accurately. This study attempts to answer these questions by drawing statistical inferences from 97 high-resolution idealized simulations of single-cell downburst events. It was found that while 35% of the simulations featured severe winds, the spatial and temporal extent of such winds is limited—O(10) km2 or less and persisting for around 5 min on average. Furthermore, through a series of simulated network experiments, it is postulated that the probability that a modern mesonet observes a severe wind gust given a severe downburst is around 1%. From these results, a statistical argument is made that most tree impacts associated with pulse convection are likely caused by subsevere winds. Several implications for forecasting, warning, and verifying WFT events fall out from these discussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 08828156 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-23-0164.1 |
