A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico in 2020–2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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| Title: | A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico in 2020–2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
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| Authors: | Comas-García, Andreu1,2 (AUTHOR), Erdely, Arturo3 (AUTHOR) aerdely@acatlan.unam.mx |
| Source: | Statistical Journal of the IAOS. Feb2025, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p112-123. 12p. |
| Subjects: | Regression analysis, Fix-point estimation, Channel estimation, COVID-19 pandemic, Mortality |
| Abstract: | Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020–2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020–2022 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020–2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020–2022 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 18747655 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/18747655241296389 |
