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Recent Abundance Changes at Species' Range Limits in the North and Central American Avifaunas.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Recent Abundance Changes at Species' Range Limits in the North and Central American Avifaunas.
Authors: Freeman, Benjamin G.1 (AUTHOR) benjamin.g.freeman@gmail.com, Miller, Eliot T.2,3 (AUTHOR), Strimas‐Mackey, Matthew2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Global Ecology & Biogeography. May2025, Vol. 34 Issue 5, p1-7. 7p.
Subjects: Climate change, Species distribution, Bird ecology, Species diversity, Life history theory
Geographic Terms: North America
Abstract: Aim: Species are often expected to track climate change via changes in their abundances and distributions. This climate tracking hypothesis generates the prediction that warming temperatures should cause species to show population increases at their poleward range limits and population decreases at their equatorward range limits. We tested these predictions for 516 species of North and Central American birds. Location: North and Central America. Time Period: 2012–2022. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We used data on bird species' recent abundance changes within their breeding or year‐round distributions from eBird Status and Trends models, and temperature data from a global temperature dataset. We defined species' northern and southern range limits, then used regression models to test whether recent abundance changes at species' range limits were predicted by temperature change and a set of ecological traits. Results: Abundance changes at species' range edges are not associated with temperature change. There is a latitudinal gradient in recent abundance changes: lower‐latitude species have increased in abundance at both northern and southern range limits, whereas higher‐latitude species have declined in abundance at both range limits. Conclusions: Patterns of abundance change at species' northern and southern range limits are not consistent with the climate tracking hypothesis for North and Central American birds. This result casts doubt on the accuracy of long‐term biological forecasts that assume tight temperature tracking for these avifaunas. Our finding of a latitudinal gradient in recent abundance change suggests lower‐latitude species may generally be benefiting from climate change, with consequences for local and regional communities across latitudinal gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
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Abstract:Aim: Species are often expected to track climate change via changes in their abundances and distributions. This climate tracking hypothesis generates the prediction that warming temperatures should cause species to show population increases at their poleward range limits and population decreases at their equatorward range limits. We tested these predictions for 516 species of North and Central American birds. Location: North and Central America. Time Period: 2012–2022. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We used data on bird species' recent abundance changes within their breeding or year‐round distributions from eBird Status and Trends models, and temperature data from a global temperature dataset. We defined species' northern and southern range limits, then used regression models to test whether recent abundance changes at species' range limits were predicted by temperature change and a set of ecological traits. Results: Abundance changes at species' range edges are not associated with temperature change. There is a latitudinal gradient in recent abundance changes: lower‐latitude species have increased in abundance at both northern and southern range limits, whereas higher‐latitude species have declined in abundance at both range limits. Conclusions: Patterns of abundance change at species' northern and southern range limits are not consistent with the climate tracking hypothesis for North and Central American birds. This result casts doubt on the accuracy of long‐term biological forecasts that assume tight temperature tracking for these avifaunas. Our finding of a latitudinal gradient in recent abundance change suggests lower‐latitude species may generally be benefiting from climate change, with consequences for local and regional communities across latitudinal gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:1466822X
DOI:10.1111/geb.70059