Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part 1. Thermal reactor scenarios. |
| Authors: |
Abramova, A. V.1 (AUTHOR), Kharitonov, V. V.1 (AUTHOR) vvkharitonov@mephi.ru |
| Source: |
Atomic Energy. Jan2025, Vol. 137 Issue 3, p137-146. 10p. |
| Subjects: |
Nuclear industry, Geothermal reactors, Nuclear power plants, Power resources, Resource exploitation, Fast reactors |
| Abstract: |
Background: The share of nuclear power in global electricity production has fallen from 17 to 9% since 2000. Moreover, the issue of limited natural uranium resources and their availability for the industry becomes acute. Aim: To analytically determine the possibilities of accelerated and sustainable development of global nuclear power industry (NPI) based on thermal nuclear reactors. Materials and methods: Scenarios for the accelerated development of global NPI based on thermal reactors were calculated using analytical methods developed by the authors for predicting the dynamics of natural uranium resource depletion. Results and discussion: The paper provides the development dynamics of NPI with only thermal reactors of a VVER type and its share in the global electricity production. Given the uranium reserves for currently operating reactors, 7.9 MtU of existing natural uranium resources appear sufficient to build only 490 (290) reactors with an operating period of 60 (80) years. Doubling natural uranium resources to 16 MtU and increasing the annual rate of thermal reactor construction to 4% could increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to the global electricity generation from 9 to 11–12% by 2035, yet followed with a rapid decline as uranium is depleted. Conclusion: The performed analysis demonstrates inadequacy of a long-term and sustainable development for global NPI based only on thermal nuclear reactors. An analysis of development scenarios based on fast reactors will be presented in Part 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
|
Copyright of Atomic Energy is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| Database: |
Engineering Source |
