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Impact of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice concentration on Siberian High: Insights from causal relationship.

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Title: Impact of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice concentration on Siberian High: Insights from causal relationship.
Authors: Lin, Yating1,2 (AUTHOR), Wang, Geli1,2 (AUTHOR) wgl@mail.iap.ac.cn
Source: Atmospheric Research. Nov2025, Vol. 326, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Polar vortex, Westerlies, Winter, Forecasting, Algorithms
Abstract: This study applies the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) algorithm to investigate the causal relationship between Arctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) and the Siberian High (SH) from a causal perspective. The main results are as follows: 1) Both autumn and winter pan-Arctic SIC have a causal influence on the winter SH, and the causal influence of autumn SIC on SH being significantly stronger than that of winter SIC. 2) The causal strength of autumn SIC on the SH differs by region, being most potent in the Barents-Kara Sea and least in the Greenland Sea. Nonetheless, the trends in interannual variations in causal strength are uniform, with a notable intensification in the impact of autumn SIC on SH across various regions after 1998. 3) A comparison of the circulation patterns before and after 1998 reveals that the reduction in the autumn Arctic SIC may affect the SH through stratospheric pathways. Specifically, after 1998, the accelerated reduction in the autumn Arctic SIC has weakened the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and the westerly jet, enhanced cold air activities, which in turn strengthened the SH. This study will enhance the comprehension of the impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the SH and its potential as an early warning signal. Additionally, it will improve the understanding of the causal relationships between Arctic sea ice and mid-latitude climate, which can help in forecasting extreme cold events. • Convergent Cross Mapping confirms causal link between Arctic sea ice and SH. • Sea ice in Autumn has stronger causal effect on SH than in winter. • Causal impact of autumn Arctic sea ice on SH strengthened since 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:This study applies the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) algorithm to investigate the causal relationship between Arctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) and the Siberian High (SH) from a causal perspective. The main results are as follows: 1) Both autumn and winter pan-Arctic SIC have a causal influence on the winter SH, and the causal influence of autumn SIC on SH being significantly stronger than that of winter SIC. 2) The causal strength of autumn SIC on the SH differs by region, being most potent in the Barents-Kara Sea and least in the Greenland Sea. Nonetheless, the trends in interannual variations in causal strength are uniform, with a notable intensification in the impact of autumn SIC on SH across various regions after 1998. 3) A comparison of the circulation patterns before and after 1998 reveals that the reduction in the autumn Arctic SIC may affect the SH through stratospheric pathways. Specifically, after 1998, the accelerated reduction in the autumn Arctic SIC has weakened the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and the westerly jet, enhanced cold air activities, which in turn strengthened the SH. This study will enhance the comprehension of the impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the SH and its potential as an early warning signal. Additionally, it will improve the understanding of the causal relationships between Arctic sea ice and mid-latitude climate, which can help in forecasting extreme cold events. • Convergent Cross Mapping confirms causal link between Arctic sea ice and SH. • Sea ice in Autumn has stronger causal effect on SH than in winter. • Causal impact of autumn Arctic sea ice on SH strengthened since 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:01698095
DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108268