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Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Water Resource Vulnerability in the West-Flowing Songhua River Basin, China.

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Title: Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Water Resource Vulnerability in the West-Flowing Songhua River Basin, China.
Authors: Zhang, Wenjing1 (AUTHOR) zhwenjing@jlu.edu.cn, Wan, Bo2 (AUTHOR), Zhu, Yifan2 (AUTHOR), Ding, Yuanfang3 (AUTHOR), Li, Xiang4 (AUTHOR), Hong, Xiaotao2 (AUTHOR), Shang, Yajie2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management. Nov2025, Vol. 151 Issue 11, p1-12. 12p.
Subjects: Sensitivity analysis, Adaptive natural resource management, Water supply, Hydrogeological modeling, Spatiotemporal processes, Markov processes, Cellular automata, Watersheds
Geographic Terms: China
Abstract: Existing research on water resource vulnerability typically employs evaluation systems that rely on a singular indicator, which exacerbates the cumulative error effect. This study constructs an evaluation framework coupled with sensitivity, exposure, and adaptability grounded in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Taking the west-flowing Songhua River Basin as the study area, the vulnerability is assessed from temporal and spatial perspectives, with the Sobol method employed to identify the key factors influencing basin vulnerability. The findings reveal that adaptability exhibits higher sensitivity in the evaluation function, and its interaction with sensitivity is significant. The slope factor is the most sensitive of evaluation parameters, followed by net primary productivity data for vegetation. Furthermore, the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model provides a detailed characterization of the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of local water resource vulnerability in the basin. The water resource vulnerability is predicted to reach 0.26 and 0.32 in 2022 and 2026, respectively, and is slowly escalating. This study provides valuable insights into the water resource vulnerability evaluation system for the basin and provides a reference for future management and sustainable development of the basin's water resources. Practical Applications: This study develops an assessment system using direct indicators, clear physical concepts, and broad applicability to watershed hydrology, considering the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water resources, diverse causes of vulnerability, and complex multidimensional attributes. While most studies focus on predicting water resource system vulnerability at a regional scale, they neglect the nuanced dynamic changes in local-level vulnerability. This study proposes a methodology for modeling and predicting the dynamics of water resource vulnerability. By understanding water resource vulnerability, this research helps clarify regional conditions and informs adaptive management strategies for vulnerable areas. Additionally, the study takes the west-flowing Songhua River Basin as a case study and finds that regions with relatively abundant water resources still face potential risks, emphasizing the need for disaster research in these areas. It is crucial to consider the impacts of excessive land development and improper water resource management on the basin environment and develop corresponding conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:Existing research on water resource vulnerability typically employs evaluation systems that rely on a singular indicator, which exacerbates the cumulative error effect. This study constructs an evaluation framework coupled with sensitivity, exposure, and adaptability grounded in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Taking the west-flowing Songhua River Basin as the study area, the vulnerability is assessed from temporal and spatial perspectives, with the Sobol method employed to identify the key factors influencing basin vulnerability. The findings reveal that adaptability exhibits higher sensitivity in the evaluation function, and its interaction with sensitivity is significant. The slope factor is the most sensitive of evaluation parameters, followed by net primary productivity data for vegetation. Furthermore, the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model provides a detailed characterization of the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of local water resource vulnerability in the basin. The water resource vulnerability is predicted to reach 0.26 and 0.32 in 2022 and 2026, respectively, and is slowly escalating. This study provides valuable insights into the water resource vulnerability evaluation system for the basin and provides a reference for future management and sustainable development of the basin's water resources. Practical Applications: This study develops an assessment system using direct indicators, clear physical concepts, and broad applicability to watershed hydrology, considering the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water resources, diverse causes of vulnerability, and complex multidimensional attributes. While most studies focus on predicting water resource system vulnerability at a regional scale, they neglect the nuanced dynamic changes in local-level vulnerability. This study proposes a methodology for modeling and predicting the dynamics of water resource vulnerability. By understanding water resource vulnerability, this research helps clarify regional conditions and informs adaptive management strategies for vulnerable areas. Additionally, the study takes the west-flowing Songhua River Basin as a case study and finds that regions with relatively abundant water resources still face potential risks, emphasizing the need for disaster research in these areas. It is crucial to consider the impacts of excessive land development and improper water resource management on the basin environment and develop corresponding conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:07339496
DOI:10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6994