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A simple method for quickly estimating solar irradiance forecast errors.

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Title: A simple method for quickly estimating solar irradiance forecast errors.
Authors: Lauret, Philippe1 (AUTHOR) philippe.lauret@univ-reunion.fr, David, Mathieu1 (AUTHOR) mathieu.david@univ-reunion.fr, Salle, Josselin Le Gal La1 (AUTHOR) josselin.le-gal-la-salle@univ-reunion.fr, Lorenz, Elke2 (AUTHOR) elke.lorenz@ise.fraunhofer.de, Perez, Richard3 (AUTHOR) solarperez@gmail.com, Voyant, Cyril4,5 (AUTHOR) cyril.voyant@minesparis.psl.eu
Source: Solar Energy. Nov2025, Vol. 301, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Solar radiation, Forecasting, Confidence intervals, Linear statistical models, Standard deviations, Sun
Abstract: In this work, we develop simple linear models that allow users to predict solar irradiance forecast errors based solely on solar variability at a specific location on Earth. These straightforward yet actionable models enable solar forecasters to quickly estimate forecast errors for a given site, providing a clear indication of how well their forecasting models are likely to perform. The error in deterministic solar irradiance forecasts is measured by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), while solar variability is quantified by the standard deviation of an hourly time series of changes in the dimensionless clear sky index. Sixty sites distributed around the globe are used to build two types of RMSE prediction models. The first type is for intra-day forecasts (1-hour to 6-hour forecast horizons), while the second is for day-ahead forecasts (24-hour horizon). The derivation of the intra-day forecast error prediction model leverages on a non-linear time series approach whereas the one for day-ahead forecast error relies on forecasts issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For each type of model, we calculate also the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the distribution in order to estimate the 95% uncertainty interval associated with the prediction. This uncertainty interval defines the bounds of the RMSE within which 95% of future RMSE values are expected to fall. These error bounds can provide solar forecasters with valuable insights into the performance of their solar forecasting methods in relation to the forecast challenges posed by site-specific variability. Verification against published results in the literature, specifically for seven sites of the SURFRAD network, demonstrates that these models can satisfactorily predict intra-day and day-ahead forecast RMSEs using only site-specific solar variability data. • We build linear models to predict solar forecast errors from solar variability. • Intra-day and day-ahead predictions models are proposed. • Models estimate 95% uncertainty bounds for future forecast verification. • Verification shows good RMSE predictions for diverse global and SURFRAD sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:In this work, we develop simple linear models that allow users to predict solar irradiance forecast errors based solely on solar variability at a specific location on Earth. These straightforward yet actionable models enable solar forecasters to quickly estimate forecast errors for a given site, providing a clear indication of how well their forecasting models are likely to perform. The error in deterministic solar irradiance forecasts is measured by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), while solar variability is quantified by the standard deviation of an hourly time series of changes in the dimensionless clear sky index. Sixty sites distributed around the globe are used to build two types of RMSE prediction models. The first type is for intra-day forecasts (1-hour to 6-hour forecast horizons), while the second is for day-ahead forecasts (24-hour horizon). The derivation of the intra-day forecast error prediction model leverages on a non-linear time series approach whereas the one for day-ahead forecast error relies on forecasts issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For each type of model, we calculate also the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the distribution in order to estimate the 95% uncertainty interval associated with the prediction. This uncertainty interval defines the bounds of the RMSE within which 95% of future RMSE values are expected to fall. These error bounds can provide solar forecasters with valuable insights into the performance of their solar forecasting methods in relation to the forecast challenges posed by site-specific variability. Verification against published results in the literature, specifically for seven sites of the SURFRAD network, demonstrates that these models can satisfactorily predict intra-day and day-ahead forecast RMSEs using only site-specific solar variability data. • We build linear models to predict solar forecast errors from solar variability. • Intra-day and day-ahead predictions models are proposed. • Models estimate 95% uncertainty bounds for future forecast verification. • Verification shows good RMSE predictions for diverse global and SURFRAD sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:0038092X
DOI:10.1016/j.solener.2025.113821