A New Quantitative Framework for Mediterranean Cyclogenesis: Local Wave Activity and Cross-Basin Dynamics.
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| Title: | A New Quantitative Framework for Mediterranean Cyclogenesis: Local Wave Activity and Cross-Basin Dynamics. |
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| Authors: | Sandler, Dor1 (AUTHOR) dor.sandler@gmail.com, Harnik, Nili1 (AUTHOR), Ziv, Baruch2 (AUTHOR), Saaroni, Hadas1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Feb2026, Vol. 39 Issue 3, p925-939. 15p. |
| Subjects: | Cyclogenesis, Atmospheric waves, Cyclone tracking, Atmospheric circulation, Cyclone forecasting, Baroclinicity |
| Geographic Terms: | Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea |
| Abstract: | The North Atlantic–Mediterranean region hosts a complex interplay of two storm tracks, linked by multiple weather systems interacting across scales, such as the interplay of low-level cyclones and anticyclones with upper-level Rossby waves. Compared to the well-known inherent cyclogenetic properties of the Mediterranean itself, the role of cross-basin processes, mainly from the North Atlantic, in shaping Mediterranean cyclones remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we use the local wave activity (LWA) framework, applied for the first time to the Mediterranean, for quantifying the relative cyclogenetic contributions of physical processes within and outside the basin, and to assess their impact on cyclone characteristics. Our analysis shows that the waviness of the North Atlantic atmospheric flow enhances the frequency of Mediterranean cyclones and the occurrence of the upper-level streamers that drive them. Eddy momentum flux divergence over the northern Mediterranean coast, combined with local baroclinic LWA sources, plays a central role in cyclone dynamics, affecting storm trajectories and precipitation on subseasonal to monthly time scales. On a broader scale, our analysis demonstrates how wavy flow propagates from the North Atlantic into the Mediterranean basin, transforming throughout the process over the course of 5–10 days. The novel application of the LWA perspective establishes a new dynamically grounded framework for analyzing Mediterranean cyclogenesis and the physical processes that drive it. It also provides new insights into the cross-basin interactions that shape cyclone development, with potential implications for extreme winters and future climate trends in the basin. Significance Statement: In this work, we study how the waviness of the atmospheric flow and its underlying drivers influence Mediterranean cyclones and their associated rainfall. We use local wave activity, a quantitative framework that has never been applied to the region, to distinguish between local and remote dynamical contributions to storm life cycles. We identify two key processes: highly energetic air from higher latitudes reaching the Mediterranean and local interactions between upper and lower atmospheric levels. Through this novel application, it is shown that specific fluxes of wavy flow contribute to Mediterranean cyclone track variability and rainfall on time scales from 10 days to months, offering new insights into regional storm dynamics and their cross-basin drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | The North Atlantic–Mediterranean region hosts a complex interplay of two storm tracks, linked by multiple weather systems interacting across scales, such as the interplay of low-level cyclones and anticyclones with upper-level Rossby waves. Compared to the well-known inherent cyclogenetic properties of the Mediterranean itself, the role of cross-basin processes, mainly from the North Atlantic, in shaping Mediterranean cyclones remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we use the local wave activity (LWA) framework, applied for the first time to the Mediterranean, for quantifying the relative cyclogenetic contributions of physical processes within and outside the basin, and to assess their impact on cyclone characteristics. Our analysis shows that the waviness of the North Atlantic atmospheric flow enhances the frequency of Mediterranean cyclones and the occurrence of the upper-level streamers that drive them. Eddy momentum flux divergence over the northern Mediterranean coast, combined with local baroclinic LWA sources, plays a central role in cyclone dynamics, affecting storm trajectories and precipitation on subseasonal to monthly time scales. On a broader scale, our analysis demonstrates how wavy flow propagates from the North Atlantic into the Mediterranean basin, transforming throughout the process over the course of 5–10 days. The novel application of the LWA perspective establishes a new dynamically grounded framework for analyzing Mediterranean cyclogenesis and the physical processes that drive it. It also provides new insights into the cross-basin interactions that shape cyclone development, with potential implications for extreme winters and future climate trends in the basin. Significance Statement: In this work, we study how the waviness of the atmospheric flow and its underlying drivers influence Mediterranean cyclones and their associated rainfall. We use local wave activity, a quantitative framework that has never been applied to the region, to distinguish between local and remote dynamical contributions to storm life cycles. We identify two key processes: highly energetic air from higher latitudes reaching the Mediterranean and local interactions between upper and lower atmospheric levels. Through this novel application, it is shown that specific fluxes of wavy flow contribute to Mediterranean cyclone track variability and rainfall on time scales from 10 days to months, offering new insights into regional storm dynamics and their cross-basin drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 08948755 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0212.1 |
