Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM.
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| Title: | Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM. |
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| Authors: | Matsuo, Yoshiki1 (AUTHOR) matsuo.yoshiki.52x@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp, Okada, Tomoharu2 (AUTHOR), Shimura, Tomoya3 (AUTHOR), Mori, Nobuhito3,4,5 (AUTHOR), Miyashita, Takuya3 (AUTHOR), Mizuta, Ryo6 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p1-17. 17p. |
| Subjects: | Tropical cyclones, Climate change models, El Niño, Climate change adaptation, Ocean temperature, Stochastic analysis, Tropical storms |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic assessments of future changes in typhoon characteristics, which are necessary for coastal protection and climate change adaptation, have not been sufficiently conducted. This study probabilistically demonstrated the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency. Given that the variability of typhoon characteristics is related to sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns, we propose new large ensemble simulations for typhoons under several sea surface boundary conditions based on the slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM). This study evaluated the relationship between the spatial patterns of SST and the corresponding typhoon intensity. Climate simulations were performed under historical and future conditions (the SSP585 scenario) to quantify future changes in typhoon characteristics. For quantitative evaluations of typhoon frequency and intensity, the weight-averaged number of typhoons in September decreased by 22% and 27% in the future projection with 60 km and 20 km resolutions, respectively, compared to the historical simulation. The annual probability of occurrence for typhoons, which ranked in the top 1% in historical simulations, is projected to increase to 4–5% under the SSP585 future climate conditions. The variance in typhoon intensity is larger in the future projection, which can be explained by approximately 50–60% of the SST pattern differences and future increments in mean SST. As the exceedance probability of typhoon intensity decreases, the contribution of climate change to its variance becomes more pronounced. A comparison of the historical and future simulations shows that typhoon intensity becomes more sensitive to the trend of ENSO patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic assessments of future changes in typhoon characteristics, which are necessary for coastal protection and climate change adaptation, have not been sufficiently conducted. This study probabilistically demonstrated the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency. Given that the variability of typhoon characteristics is related to sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns, we propose new large ensemble simulations for typhoons under several sea surface boundary conditions based on the slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM). This study evaluated the relationship between the spatial patterns of SST and the corresponding typhoon intensity. Climate simulations were performed under historical and future conditions (the SSP585 scenario) to quantify future changes in typhoon characteristics. For quantitative evaluations of typhoon frequency and intensity, the weight-averaged number of typhoons in September decreased by 22% and 27% in the future projection with 60 km and 20 km resolutions, respectively, compared to the historical simulation. The annual probability of occurrence for typhoons, which ranked in the top 1% in historical simulations, is projected to increase to 4–5% under the SSP585 future climate conditions. The variance in typhoon intensity is larger in the future projection, which can be explained by approximately 50–60% of the SST pattern differences and future increments in mean SST. As the exceedance probability of typhoon intensity decreases, the contribution of climate change to its variance becomes more pronounced. A comparison of the historical and future simulations shows that typhoon intensity becomes more sensitive to the trend of ENSO patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 08948755 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0274.1 |
