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Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM.

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Title: Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM.
Authors: Matsuo, Yoshiki1 (AUTHOR) matsuo.yoshiki.52x@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp, Okada, Tomoharu2 (AUTHOR), Shimura, Tomoya3 (AUTHOR), Mori, Nobuhito3,4,5 (AUTHOR), Miyashita, Takuya3 (AUTHOR), Mizuta, Ryo6 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p1-17. 17p.
Subjects: Tropical cyclones, Climate change models, El Niño, Climate change adaptation, Ocean temperature, Stochastic analysis, Tropical storms
Abstract: Probabilistic assessments of future changes in typhoon characteristics, which are necessary for coastal protection and climate change adaptation, have not been sufficiently conducted. This study probabilistically demonstrated the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency. Given that the variability of typhoon characteristics is related to sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns, we propose new large ensemble simulations for typhoons under several sea surface boundary conditions based on the slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM). This study evaluated the relationship between the spatial patterns of SST and the corresponding typhoon intensity. Climate simulations were performed under historical and future conditions (the SSP585 scenario) to quantify future changes in typhoon characteristics. For quantitative evaluations of typhoon frequency and intensity, the weight-averaged number of typhoons in September decreased by 22% and 27% in the future projection with 60 km and 20 km resolutions, respectively, compared to the historical simulation. The annual probability of occurrence for typhoons, which ranked in the top 1% in historical simulations, is projected to increase to 4–5% under the SSP585 future climate conditions. The variance in typhoon intensity is larger in the future projection, which can be explained by approximately 50–60% of the SST pattern differences and future increments in mean SST. As the exceedance probability of typhoon intensity decreases, the contribution of climate change to its variance becomes more pronounced. A comparison of the historical and future simulations shows that typhoon intensity becomes more sensitive to the trend of ENSO patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Matsuo%2C+Yoshiki%22">Matsuo, Yoshiki</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> matsuo.yoshiki.52x@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Okada%2C+Tomoharu%22">Okada, Tomoharu</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shimura%2C+Tomoya%22">Shimura, Tomoya</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mori%2C+Nobuhito%22">Mori, Nobuhito</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Miyashita%2C+Takuya%22">Miyashita, Takuya</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mizuta%2C+Ryo%22">Mizuta, Ryo</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p1-17. 17p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+models%22">Climate change models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+adaptation%22">Climate change adaptation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Stochastic+analysis%22">Stochastic analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+storms%22">Tropical storms</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
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  Data: Probabilistic assessments of future changes in typhoon characteristics, which are necessary for coastal protection and climate change adaptation, have not been sufficiently conducted. This study probabilistically demonstrated the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency. Given that the variability of typhoon characteristics is related to sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns, we propose new large ensemble simulations for typhoons under several sea surface boundary conditions based on the slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM). This study evaluated the relationship between the spatial patterns of SST and the corresponding typhoon intensity. Climate simulations were performed under historical and future conditions (the SSP585 scenario) to quantify future changes in typhoon characteristics. For quantitative evaluations of typhoon frequency and intensity, the weight-averaged number of typhoons in September decreased by 22% and 27% in the future projection with 60 km and 20 km resolutions, respectively, compared to the historical simulation. The annual probability of occurrence for typhoons, which ranked in the top 1% in historical simulations, is projected to increase to 4–5% under the SSP585 future climate conditions. The variance in typhoon intensity is larger in the future projection, which can be explained by approximately 50–60% of the SST pattern differences and future increments in mean SST. As the exceedance probability of typhoon intensity decreases, the contribution of climate change to its variance becomes more pronounced. A comparison of the historical and future simulations shows that typhoon intensity becomes more sensitive to the trend of ENSO patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0274.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change adaptation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stochastic analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tropical storms
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM.
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            NameFull: Matsuo, Yoshiki
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            NameFull: Okada, Tomoharu
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              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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