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Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.

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Title: Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.
Authors: Suya, Robert Galatiya1 (AUTHOR) rsuya@mubas.ac.mw, Ogwang, John Bosco2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Advances in Space Research. Jun2026, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p12476-12494. 19p.
Subjects: Solar cycle, Ionospheric disturbances, Stochastic models, Wavelets (Mathematics)
Abstract: This study presents a probabilistic analysis of geomagnetically induced Global Positioning System (GPS) loss of lock (LoL) at the low-latitude ZOMB station during Solar Cycle 24. Daily and component-wise LoL statistics reveal that most disruptions occur at the signal level, with satellite- and epoch-level losses being progressively rarer. Seasonal and monthly fractional analyses indicate mid-year peaks in signal instability, reflecting ionospheric variability characteristic of low-latitude, scintillation-prone regions. Conditional probability assessments demonstrate that higher AE index, F10.7 solar flux, and RMS B Y magnetic field fluctuations systematically increase the likelihood of LoL events. Predictor diagnostics and principal component analysis identify a compact set of environmental variables that mitigate multicollinearity and provide robust inputs for probabilistic modelling. Multiscale wavelet analysis further characterises temporal variability, showing contributions from short-term, seasonal, and multi-year cycles. This integrated methodology, combining component-wise characterisation, space weather linkage, and multiscale temporal analysis, offers novel insights into GPS vulnerability to space weather and provides a framework for operational monitoring and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:This study presents a probabilistic analysis of geomagnetically induced Global Positioning System (GPS) loss of lock (LoL) at the low-latitude ZOMB station during Solar Cycle 24. Daily and component-wise LoL statistics reveal that most disruptions occur at the signal level, with satellite- and epoch-level losses being progressively rarer. Seasonal and monthly fractional analyses indicate mid-year peaks in signal instability, reflecting ionospheric variability characteristic of low-latitude, scintillation-prone regions. Conditional probability assessments demonstrate that higher AE index, F10.7 solar flux, and RMS B Y magnetic field fluctuations systematically increase the likelihood of LoL events. Predictor diagnostics and principal component analysis identify a compact set of environmental variables that mitigate multicollinearity and provide robust inputs for probabilistic modelling. Multiscale wavelet analysis further characterises temporal variability, showing contributions from short-term, seasonal, and multi-year cycles. This integrated methodology, combining component-wise characterisation, space weather linkage, and multiscale temporal analysis, offers novel insights into GPS vulnerability to space weather and provides a framework for operational monitoring and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:02731177
DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2026.04.039