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Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.

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Title: Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.
Authors: Suya, Robert Galatiya1 (AUTHOR) rsuya@mubas.ac.mw, Ogwang, John Bosco2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Advances in Space Research. Jun2026, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p12476-12494. 19p.
Subjects: Solar cycle, Ionospheric disturbances, Stochastic models, Wavelets (Mathematics)
Abstract: This study presents a probabilistic analysis of geomagnetically induced Global Positioning System (GPS) loss of lock (LoL) at the low-latitude ZOMB station during Solar Cycle 24. Daily and component-wise LoL statistics reveal that most disruptions occur at the signal level, with satellite- and epoch-level losses being progressively rarer. Seasonal and monthly fractional analyses indicate mid-year peaks in signal instability, reflecting ionospheric variability characteristic of low-latitude, scintillation-prone regions. Conditional probability assessments demonstrate that higher AE index, F10.7 solar flux, and RMS B Y magnetic field fluctuations systematically increase the likelihood of LoL events. Predictor diagnostics and principal component analysis identify a compact set of environmental variables that mitigate multicollinearity and provide robust inputs for probabilistic modelling. Multiscale wavelet analysis further characterises temporal variability, showing contributions from short-term, seasonal, and multi-year cycles. This integrated methodology, combining component-wise characterisation, space weather linkage, and multiscale temporal analysis, offers novel insights into GPS vulnerability to space weather and provides a framework for operational monitoring and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 194127402
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Suya%2C+Robert+Galatiya%22">Suya, Robert Galatiya</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> rsuya@mubas.ac.mw</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ogwang%2C+John+Bosco%22">Ogwang, John Bosco</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Advances+in+Space+Research%22">Advances in Space Research</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p12476-12494. 19p.
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– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study presents a probabilistic analysis of geomagnetically induced Global Positioning System (GPS) loss of lock (LoL) at the low-latitude ZOMB station during Solar Cycle 24. Daily and component-wise LoL statistics reveal that most disruptions occur at the signal level, with satellite- and epoch-level losses being progressively rarer. Seasonal and monthly fractional analyses indicate mid-year peaks in signal instability, reflecting ionospheric variability characteristic of low-latitude, scintillation-prone regions. Conditional probability assessments demonstrate that higher AE index, F10.7 solar flux, and RMS B Y magnetic field fluctuations systematically increase the likelihood of LoL events. Predictor diagnostics and principal component analysis identify a compact set of environmental variables that mitigate multicollinearity and provide robust inputs for probabilistic modelling. Multiscale wavelet analysis further characterises temporal variability, showing contributions from short-term, seasonal, and multi-year cycles. This integrated methodology, combining component-wise characterisation, space weather linkage, and multiscale temporal analysis, offers novel insights into GPS vulnerability to space weather and provides a framework for operational monitoring and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.asr.2026.04.039
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 19
        StartPage: 12476
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Solar cycle
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ionospheric disturbances
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stochastic models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wavelets (Mathematics)
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Probabilistic modelling of geomagnetically induced GPS loss of lock during Solar Cycle 24.
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            NameFull: Suya, Robert Galatiya
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            NameFull: Ogwang, John Bosco
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              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 77
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            – TitleFull: Advances in Space Research
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