Natural variability dominates precipitation variability over the past 800 years in Eastern Europe.
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| Title: | Natural variability dominates precipitation variability over the past 800 years in Eastern Europe. |
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| Authors: | ROIBU, CĂTĂLIN-CONSTANTIN1, NAGAVCIUC, VIORICA1,2 nagavciuc.viorica@gmail.com, PALAGHIANU, CIPRIAN1, MURSA, ANDREI1, ANDRIESCU, COSMIN-MIHAI1, COTOS, MIHAI-GABRIEL1, ȘTIRBU, MARIAN-IONUȚ1, WAZNY, TOMASZ3, SFECLĂ, VICTOR1,4, IONITA, MONICA1,2 Monica.Ionita@awi.de |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 11, p1-20. 20p. |
| Subjects: | Precipitation variability, Tree-rings, Ocean-atmosphere interaction, Climate change |
| Geographic Terms: | Europe, Eastern Europe |
| Abstract: | Tree-ring chronologies are frequently used to gain invaluable insights into past climate variability. In thus study, we developed a unique 804-year oak ring-width chronology network from Eastern Europe to reconstruct annual hydroclimate variability with a particular focus on the July 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI reconstruction captures pronounced interannual to multidecadal fluctuations in moisture availability, revealing sequences of persistent droughts and pluvials. These reconstructed hydroclimatic extremes align with documented historical episodes of agricultural failure, famine, and population displacement, underscoring the SPI's potential for identifying long-term climate–society linkages. Here, we show that the hydroclimate in the eastern part of Europe has largely remained stationary from 1221 until 2019, despite exhibiting substantial variability across interannual to multidecadal timescales. Wet years correspond to negative geopotential height anomalies over Eastern Europe, promoting cyclonic flow and rainfall, while dry years align with persistent high-pressure systems that suppress precipitation and shift storm tracks northward. These circulation anomalies co-occur with coherent Atlantic SST patterns, warm subtropical and tropical anomalies during wet years, and cold anomalies during dry years, highlighting the coupled role of blocking and ocean variability in shaping multi-year droughts and floods across Eastern Europe. Comparison with bias-corrected regional climate simulations suggests little change in mean annual hydroclimate through the 21 st century, but a broadening range of possible outcomes increases risks of persistent extremes. Our study combines tree-ring reconstructions with documentary archives to place recent and future hydroclimatic extremes in a long-term context, offering critical insights for water management, agriculture, and forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | Tree-ring chronologies are frequently used to gain invaluable insights into past climate variability. In thus study, we developed a unique 804-year oak ring-width chronology network from Eastern Europe to reconstruct annual hydroclimate variability with a particular focus on the July 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI reconstruction captures pronounced interannual to multidecadal fluctuations in moisture availability, revealing sequences of persistent droughts and pluvials. These reconstructed hydroclimatic extremes align with documented historical episodes of agricultural failure, famine, and population displacement, underscoring the SPI's potential for identifying long-term climate–society linkages. Here, we show that the hydroclimate in the eastern part of Europe has largely remained stationary from 1221 until 2019, despite exhibiting substantial variability across interannual to multidecadal timescales. Wet years correspond to negative geopotential height anomalies over Eastern Europe, promoting cyclonic flow and rainfall, while dry years align with persistent high-pressure systems that suppress precipitation and shift storm tracks northward. These circulation anomalies co-occur with coherent Atlantic SST patterns, warm subtropical and tropical anomalies during wet years, and cold anomalies during dry years, highlighting the coupled role of blocking and ocean variability in shaping multi-year droughts and floods across Eastern Europe. Comparison with bias-corrected regional climate simulations suggests little change in mean annual hydroclimate through the 21 st century, but a broadening range of possible outcomes increases risks of persistent extremes. Our study combines tree-ring reconstructions with documentary archives to place recent and future hydroclimatic extremes in a long-term context, offering critical insights for water management, agriculture, and forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 08948755 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0626.1 |
