Model alignment of anthrax attack simulations

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Model alignment of anthrax attack simulations
Authors: Chen, Li-Chiou1 lichiou@andrew.cmu.edu, Carley, Kathleen M.1, Fridsma, Douglas2, Kaminsky, Boris1, Yahja, Alex1
Source: Decision Support Systems. Mar2006, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p654-668. 15p.
Subjects: Simulation methods & models, Bioterrorism, Disease risk factors, Epidemiological research, Biological warfare, Decision making
Abstract: Abstract: This paper describes our experience aligning two simulation models of disease progression after biological attacks. The first model is the Incubation–Prodromal–Fulminant (IPF) model, a variation of the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model, and the second is an agent-based model called BioWar. We run BioWar simulations to see whether the results will, at the population level, match the IPF results. We showed that BioWar can generate population level results that are close to IPF. In addition, BioWar outputs emergent properties that cannot be simulated in IPF. This study provides insights for modelers who are developing simulation tools for investigating bioterrorism attacks and for decision makers who use these tools. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Copyright of Decision Support Systems is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
Description
Abstract:Abstract: This paper describes our experience aligning two simulation models of disease progression after biological attacks. The first model is the Incubation–Prodromal–Fulminant (IPF) model, a variation of the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model, and the second is an agent-based model called BioWar. We run BioWar simulations to see whether the results will, at the population level, match the IPF results. We showed that BioWar can generate population level results that are close to IPF. In addition, BioWar outputs emergent properties that cannot be simulated in IPF. This study provides insights for modelers who are developing simulation tools for investigating bioterrorism attacks and for decision makers who use these tools. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
ISSN:01679236
DOI:10.1016/j.dss.2004.06.012