Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971).
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| Title: | Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971). |
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| Authors: | Jorns, Kirstin1 kirstin.jorns@ife.uzh.ch |
| Source: | Paedagogica Historica. Jun2026, Vol. 62 Issue 3, p435-453. 19p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Vocational education, *Occupational training, *Economic development, *Education policy, Economic forecasting, Forecasting technological innovation |
| Abstract: | This article examines the production and reception of future knowledge in the Swiss prospective study of 1971, focusing on vocational education and training (VET). Under the direction of Francesco Kneschaurek, the study aimed to forecast Switzerland's economic development until the year 2000. Prospective studies were widespread in Western countries during the 1960s. These were the years of economic boom, the ensuing planning euphoria, a positive view of science, and the belief in the predictability and controllability of the future. The report must also be considered in the context of the Cold War when the concepts of "long-term" management and the necessary forecasting technologies were being developed. The working group was also required to use appropriate methodological tools. Of particular interest is the foundation of legitimacy, as the futures were designed to inform educational policy decisions and thus needed social approval. The paper illustrates how scientific knowledge about the future was constructed in the field of VET policy, employing rational, "robust imaginings" for legitimacy, but grounded in "creative imaginings" of the connection between education and economy that pointed to a qualitative and quantitative growth of the education system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Education Research Complete |
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| Abstract: | This article examines the production and reception of future knowledge in the Swiss prospective study of 1971, focusing on vocational education and training (VET). Under the direction of Francesco Kneschaurek, the study aimed to forecast Switzerland's economic development until the year 2000. Prospective studies were widespread in Western countries during the 1960s. These were the years of economic boom, the ensuing planning euphoria, a positive view of science, and the belief in the predictability and controllability of the future. The report must also be considered in the context of the Cold War when the concepts of "long-term" management and the necessary forecasting technologies were being developed. The working group was also required to use appropriate methodological tools. Of particular interest is the foundation of legitimacy, as the futures were designed to inform educational policy decisions and thus needed social approval. The paper illustrates how scientific knowledge about the future was constructed in the field of VET policy, employing rational, "robust imaginings" for legitimacy, but grounded in "creative imaginings" of the connection between education and economy that pointed to a qualitative and quantitative growth of the education system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00309230 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/00309230.2025.2555509 |
