Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971).
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| Title: | Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971). |
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| Authors: | Jorns, Kirstin1 kirstin.jorns@ife.uzh.ch |
| Source: | Paedagogica Historica. Jun2026, Vol. 62 Issue 3, p435-453. 19p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Vocational education, *Occupational training, *Economic development, *Education policy, Economic forecasting, Forecasting technological innovation |
| Abstract: | This article examines the production and reception of future knowledge in the Swiss prospective study of 1971, focusing on vocational education and training (VET). Under the direction of Francesco Kneschaurek, the study aimed to forecast Switzerland's economic development until the year 2000. Prospective studies were widespread in Western countries during the 1960s. These were the years of economic boom, the ensuing planning euphoria, a positive view of science, and the belief in the predictability and controllability of the future. The report must also be considered in the context of the Cold War when the concepts of "long-term" management and the necessary forecasting technologies were being developed. The working group was also required to use appropriate methodological tools. Of particular interest is the foundation of legitimacy, as the futures were designed to inform educational policy decisions and thus needed social approval. The paper illustrates how scientific knowledge about the future was constructed in the field of VET policy, employing rational, "robust imaginings" for legitimacy, but grounded in "creative imaginings" of the connection between education and economy that pointed to a qualitative and quantitative growth of the education system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Paedagogica Historica is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Education Research Complete |
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| Header | DbId: ehh DbLabel: Education Research Complete An: 193689917 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971). – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jorns%2C+Kirstin%22">Jorns, Kirstin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> kirstin.jorns@ife.uzh.ch</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Paedagogica+Historica%22">Paedagogica Historica</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 62 Issue 3, p435-453. 19p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vocational+education%22">Vocational education</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Occupational+training%22">Occupational training</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+development%22">Economic development</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Education+policy%22">Education policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+forecasting%22">Economic forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting+technological+innovation%22">Forecasting technological innovation</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: This article examines the production and reception of future knowledge in the Swiss prospective study of 1971, focusing on vocational education and training (VET). Under the direction of Francesco Kneschaurek, the study aimed to forecast Switzerland's economic development until the year 2000. Prospective studies were widespread in Western countries during the 1960s. These were the years of economic boom, the ensuing planning euphoria, a positive view of science, and the belief in the predictability and controllability of the future. The report must also be considered in the context of the Cold War when the concepts of "long-term" management and the necessary forecasting technologies were being developed. The working group was also required to use appropriate methodological tools. Of particular interest is the foundation of legitimacy, as the futures were designed to inform educational policy decisions and thus needed social approval. The paper illustrates how scientific knowledge about the future was constructed in the field of VET policy, employing rational, "robust imaginings" for legitimacy, but grounded in "creative imaginings" of the connection between education and economy that pointed to a qualitative and quantitative growth of the education system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Paedagogica Historica is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=ehh&AN=193689917 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1080/00309230.2025.2555509 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 19 StartPage: 435 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Vocational education Type: general – SubjectFull: Occupational training Type: general – SubjectFull: Economic development Type: general – SubjectFull: Education policy Type: general – SubjectFull: Economic forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Forecasting technological innovation Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Guesswork and the persuasive power of numbers. The production of future knowledge in the Swiss Kneschaurek prospective study with focus on vocational education and training (1971). Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jorns, Kirstin IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 06 Text: Jun2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00309230 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 62 – Type: issue Value: 3 Titles: – TitleFull: Paedagogica Historica Type: main |
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