Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.
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| Title: | Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate. |
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| Authors: | Pascal, Mathilde1 (AUTHOR) Mathilde.Pascal@santepubliquefrance.fr, Wagner, Vérène1 (AUTHOR), Corso, Magali1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | International Journal of Biometeorology. Apr2023, Vol. 67 Issue 4, p725-734. 10p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Climate change & health, *Temperature distribution, *Climate change, *Confidence intervals, *Percentiles |
| Geographic Terms: | France |
| Abstract: | Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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