Spatial Heat Load Density Analysis for Assessing 4th Generation District Heating Potential in Extreme Cold Climate Cities: A Case Study of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
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| Title: | Spatial Heat Load Density Analysis for Assessing 4th Generation District Heating Potential in Extreme Cold Climate Cities: A Case Study of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. |
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| Authors: | Khalzan, Tsolmon1 (AUTHOR) kh.tsolmon@must.edu.mn, Sereeter, Batmunkh1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Energies (19961073). Apr2026, Vol. 19 Issue 7, p1598. 18p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Heating load, *Clean energy, *Cities & towns, *Heat losses, *Heating from central stations, *Geographic information systems |
| Geographic Terms: | Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia), Mongolia |
| Abstract: | Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, operates one of the world's largest district heating (DH) systems in the coldest national capital (heating degree-days ~5800). Despite serving over 60% of the city's 1.6 million residents, the current 3rd generation DH system suffers from high thermal losses (~17–18%) and relies on coal-fired combined heat and power plants. Transitioning to 4th generation district heating (4GDH) with lower supply temperatures could reduce these losses while enabling future low-temperature renewable energy integration. A geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial heat load density (HLD) analysis uses operational data from the Ulaanbaatar District Heating Company, encompassing 13,500 buildings with a total connected capacity of 3924 MW. Grid-based spatial analysis was performed at two resolutions (1 km2 and 2 km2). Threshold sensitivity analysis was conducted across HLD criteria of 1–5 MW/km2. Results indicate that median HLD values exceed the European reference threshold of 3 MW/km2, with log-normal distributions confirmed by Shapiro–Wilk tests. Three candidate pilot zones were identified. A hybrid temperature strategy (65/35 °C above −25 °C; 90/60 °C below) further contextualizes the findings. These results suggest spatially favorable conditions for 4GDH development, providing a quantitative foundation for subsequent techno-economic feasibility studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Abstract: | Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, operates one of the world's largest district heating (DH) systems in the coldest national capital (heating degree-days ~5800). Despite serving over 60% of the city's 1.6 million residents, the current 3rd generation DH system suffers from high thermal losses (~17–18%) and relies on coal-fired combined heat and power plants. Transitioning to 4th generation district heating (4GDH) with lower supply temperatures could reduce these losses while enabling future low-temperature renewable energy integration. A geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial heat load density (HLD) analysis uses operational data from the Ulaanbaatar District Heating Company, encompassing 13,500 buildings with a total connected capacity of 3924 MW. Grid-based spatial analysis was performed at two resolutions (1 km2 and 2 km2). Threshold sensitivity analysis was conducted across HLD criteria of 1–5 MW/km2. Results indicate that median HLD values exceed the European reference threshold of 3 MW/km2, with log-normal distributions confirmed by Shapiro–Wilk tests. Three candidate pilot zones were identified. A hybrid temperature strategy (65/35 °C above −25 °C; 90/60 °C below) further contextualizes the findings. These results suggest spatially favorable conditions for 4GDH development, providing a quantitative foundation for subsequent techno-economic feasibility studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 19961073 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en19071598 |
