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Tracking Attainment without a Counterfactual -- Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Meta-Method Review. Review Report

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Tracking Attainment without a Counterfactual -- Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Meta-Method Review. Review Report
Language: English
Authors: Stephen R. T. Cromie, Gemma Schwendel, Pippa Lord, Education Endowment Foundation (EEF) (United Kingdom), National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) (United Kingdom)
Source: Education Endowment Foundation. 2026.
Availability: Education Endowment Foundation. 9th Floor Millbank Tower, Millbank, London, SW1P 4QP, UK. Tel: +44-207-802-1676; e-mail: info@eefoundation.org.uk; Web site: https://educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 48
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Information Analyses
Descriptors: COVID-19, Pandemics, Educational Attainment, Foreign Countries, Educational Research, Research Methodology, Validity, Reliability, Bias, Evaluation, Guidelines, Crisis Management, Research Design, Educational Change, Data Use, Measurement
Geographic Terms: United Kingdom (England)
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented school closures, prompting numerous studies to track the impact on pupil attainment, in a context where national achievement tests were cancelled. These studies varied widely in their methodologies, measures, and conclusions, making it challenging for policymakers to draw consistent insights. The report reviews seven major studies that tracked pupil attainment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in England to provide actionable recommendations for future research on widespread prolonged educational disruptions, including events such as natural disasters, climate change, national workforce strikes, modern warfare, and organised terrorism including widespread cyber-attacks, in addition to future pandemics. The studies were conducted in adverse circumstances where there was an impetus for rapid initiation of studies to inform time-critical policies; and also at the time when there were greatest risks to school and pupil participation. Using an extended ROBINS-E risk of bias framework, the report identifies common risks of bias, arising from insufficient confounding factors, selection effects, missing data, post-exposure interventions, and limited validation of outcome measures. The insights from this review highlight the need for robust, comprehensive methodologies in tracking educational attainment during disruptions, drawing on expertise in complex sampling, psychometrics, and observational studies.
Abstractor: ERIC
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED680936
Database: ERIC
Description
Abstract:The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented school closures, prompting numerous studies to track the impact on pupil attainment, in a context where national achievement tests were cancelled. These studies varied widely in their methodologies, measures, and conclusions, making it challenging for policymakers to draw consistent insights. The report reviews seven major studies that tracked pupil attainment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in England to provide actionable recommendations for future research on widespread prolonged educational disruptions, including events such as natural disasters, climate change, national workforce strikes, modern warfare, and organised terrorism including widespread cyber-attacks, in addition to future pandemics. The studies were conducted in adverse circumstances where there was an impetus for rapid initiation of studies to inform time-critical policies; and also at the time when there were greatest risks to school and pupil participation. Using an extended ROBINS-E risk of bias framework, the report identifies common risks of bias, arising from insufficient confounding factors, selection effects, missing data, post-exposure interventions, and limited validation of outcome measures. The insights from this review highlight the need for robust, comprehensive methodologies in tracking educational attainment during disruptions, drawing on expertise in complex sampling, psychometrics, and observational studies.