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Measuring the Economic Returns to Postsecondary Education at Scale: An Analytic Framework and Findings from Texas

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Title: Measuring the Economic Returns to Postsecondary Education at Scale: An Analytic Framework and Findings from Texas
Language: English
Authors: Jonah Deutsch, Whitney Kozakowski, Naihobe Gonzalez, Jessica Wagner, Mathematica
Source: Mathematica. 2026.
Availability: Mathematica. P.O. Box 2393, Princeton, NJ 08543. Tel: 609-799-3535; Fax: 609-799-0005; e-mail: publications@mathematica-mpr.com; Web site: https://www.mathematica.org
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 126
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Postsecondary Education
Higher Education
Two Year Colleges
High Schools
Secondary Education
Descriptors: Postsecondary Education, Outcomes of Education, Bachelors Degrees, Associate Degrees, Educational Certificates, In State Students, Income, Economic Impact, High School Graduates, Individual Characteristics, College Choice, Course Selection (Students)
Geographic Terms: Texas
Abstract: There is growing interest among the public and policymakers in measuring the economic value of postsecondary institutions and programs at scale. However, estimating the impacts of institutions and programs on students' earnings net of costs is challenging. The Postsecondary Commission contracted with Mathematica to design and implement an approach to measuring at scale the economic value that institutions and programs create for students who enroll, relative to what these students would experience if they did not enroll in postsecondary education. Using individual-level administrative data from Texas, the study focuses on students enrolling in-state in two- and four-year public institutions seeking a bachelor's degree, associate's degree, or certificate between the 2008-09 and 2018-19 academic years. For each degree type, the authors estimate the impact of enrolling in an institution or program on students' cumulative earnings after five, 10, or 15 years (depending on whether a student is seeking a certificate, associate's degree, or bachelor's degree, respectively) by comparing students' earnings with those of a matched comparison group of similar individuals who did not enroll in postsecondary education during this follow-up period. The analysis includes all enrollees in an institution or program, regardless of whether they completed their degree. The authors then subtract the cost of attendance, net of any grant aid and tuition waivers, to calculate cumulative net value-added earnings (hereafter, "cumulative net VAE"). The study uses these cumulative net VAE measures to understand the average economic value of enrolling in different degree types and how this varied across institutions, program of study, and demographic groups. [This report was co-produced with the Postsecondary Commission.]
Abstractor: ERIC
Entry Date: 20260101
Accession Number: ED682689
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
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  Data: Measuring the Economic Returns to Postsecondary Education at Scale: An Analytic Framework and Findings from Texas
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jonah+Deutsch%22">Jonah Deutsch</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Whitney+Kozakowski%22">Whitney Kozakowski</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Naihobe+Gonzalez%22">Naihobe Gonzalez</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jessica+Wagner%22">Jessica Wagner</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mathematica%22">Mathematica</searchLink>
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  Data: Mathematica. P.O. Box 2393, Princeton, NJ 08543. Tel: 609-799-3535; Fax: 609-799-0005; e-mail: publications@mathematica-mpr.com; Web site: https://www.mathematica.org
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  Data: 126
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Postsecondary+Education%22">Postsecondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Higher+Education%22">Higher Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Two+Year+Colleges%22">Two Year Colleges</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22High+Schools%22">High Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Secondary+Education%22">Secondary Education</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Postsecondary+Education%22">Postsecondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outcomes+of+Education%22">Outcomes of Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bachelors+Degrees%22">Bachelors Degrees</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Associate+Degrees%22">Associate Degrees</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Certificates%22">Educational Certificates</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22In+State+Students%22">In State Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Income%22">Income</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+Impact%22">Economic Impact</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22High+School+Graduates%22">High School Graduates</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Individual+Characteristics%22">Individual Characteristics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22College+Choice%22">College Choice</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Course+Selection+%28Students%29%22">Course Selection (Students)</searchLink>
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  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Texas%22">Texas</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: There is growing interest among the public and policymakers in measuring the economic value of postsecondary institutions and programs at scale. However, estimating the impacts of institutions and programs on students' earnings net of costs is challenging. The Postsecondary Commission contracted with Mathematica to design and implement an approach to measuring at scale the economic value that institutions and programs create for students who enroll, relative to what these students would experience if they did not enroll in postsecondary education. Using individual-level administrative data from Texas, the study focuses on students enrolling in-state in two- and four-year public institutions seeking a bachelor's degree, associate's degree, or certificate between the 2008-09 and 2018-19 academic years. For each degree type, the authors estimate the impact of enrolling in an institution or program on students' cumulative earnings after five, 10, or 15 years (depending on whether a student is seeking a certificate, associate's degree, or bachelor's degree, respectively) by comparing students' earnings with those of a matched comparison group of similar individuals who did not enroll in postsecondary education during this follow-up period. The analysis includes all enrollees in an institution or program, regardless of whether they completed their degree. The authors then subtract the cost of attendance, net of any grant aid and tuition waivers, to calculate cumulative net value-added earnings (hereafter, "cumulative net VAE"). The study uses these cumulative net VAE measures to understand the average economic value of enrolling in different degree types and how this varied across institutions, program of study, and demographic groups. [This report was co-produced with the Postsecondary Commission.]
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      – Text: English
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        PageCount: 126
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Postsecondary Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Outcomes of Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bachelors Degrees
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Associate Degrees
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Certificates
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      – SubjectFull: In State Students
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      – SubjectFull: Income
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      – SubjectFull: Economic Impact
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      – SubjectFull: High School Graduates
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      – SubjectFull: Individual Characteristics
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      – SubjectFull: College Choice
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      – SubjectFull: Course Selection (Students)
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      – SubjectFull: Texas
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