Early Prediction Models and Crucial Factor Extraction for First-Year Undergraduate Student Dropouts
Saved in:
| Title: | Early Prediction Models and Crucial Factor Extraction for First-Year Undergraduate Student Dropouts |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Thao-Trang Huynh-Cam (ORCID |
| Source: | Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education. 2025 17(2):624-639. |
| Availability: | Emerald Publishing Limited. Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, West Yorkshire, BD16 1WA, UK. Tel: +44-1274-777700; Fax: +44-1274-785201; e-mail: emerald@emeraldinsight.com; Web site: http://www.emerald.com/insight |
| Peer Reviewed: | Y |
| Page Count: | 16 |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Document Type: | Journal Articles Reports - Research |
| Education Level: | Higher Education Postsecondary Education |
| Descriptors: | Foreign Countries, Undergraduate Students, At Risk Students, Dropout Characteristics, Dropout Prevention, Dropout Rate, Student Characteristics, Family Characteristics, Family Income, Predictor Variables, Predictive Measurement, Causal Models, Test Construction, Test Reliability, Test Validity, Dropouts, Parent Background, Educational Attainment, Financial Aid Applicants, Computer Assisted Testing, Artificial Intelligence |
| Geographic Terms: | Taiwan |
| DOI: | 10.1108/JARHE-10-2023-0461 |
| ISSN: | 2050-7003 1758-1184 |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study aimed to use enrollment information including demographic, family background and financial status, which can be gathered before the first semester starts, to construct early prediction models (EPMs) and extract crucial factors associated with first-year student dropout probability. Design/methodology/approach: The real-world samples comprised the enrolled records of 2,412 first-year students of a private university (UNI) in Taiwan. This work utilized decision trees (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms for constructing EPMs; under-sampling, random oversampling and synthetic minority over sampling technique (SMOTE) methods for solving data imbalance problems; accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under ROC curve (AUC) for evaluating constructed EPMs. Findings: DT outperformed MLP and LR with accuracy (97.59%), precision (98%), recall (97%), F1_score (97%), and ROC-AUC (98%). The top-ranking factors comprised "student loan," "dad occupations," "mom educational level," "department," "mom occupations," "admission type," "school fee waiver" and "main sources of living." Practical implications: This work only used enrollment information to identify dropout students and crucial factors associated with dropout probability as soon as students enter universities. The extracted rules could be utilized to enhance student retention. Originality/value: Although first-year student dropouts have gained non-stop attention from researchers in educational practices and theories worldwide, diverse previous studies utilized while-and/or post-semester factors, and/or questionnaires for predicting. These methods failed to offer universities early warning systems (EWS) and/or assist them in providing in-time assistance to dropouts, who face economic difficulties. This work provided universities with an EWS and extracted rules for early dropout prevention and intervention. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2025 |
| Accession Number: | EJ1464123 |
| Database: | ERIC |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study aimed to use enrollment information including demographic, family background and financial status, which can be gathered before the first semester starts, to construct early prediction models (EPMs) and extract crucial factors associated with first-year student dropout probability. Design/methodology/approach: The real-world samples comprised the enrolled records of 2,412 first-year students of a private university (UNI) in Taiwan. This work utilized decision trees (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms for constructing EPMs; under-sampling, random oversampling and synthetic minority over sampling technique (SMOTE) methods for solving data imbalance problems; accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under ROC curve (AUC) for evaluating constructed EPMs. Findings: DT outperformed MLP and LR with accuracy (97.59%), precision (98%), recall (97%), F1_score (97%), and ROC-AUC (98%). The top-ranking factors comprised "student loan," "dad occupations," "mom educational level," "department," "mom occupations," "admission type," "school fee waiver" and "main sources of living." Practical implications: This work only used enrollment information to identify dropout students and crucial factors associated with dropout probability as soon as students enter universities. The extracted rules could be utilized to enhance student retention. Originality/value: Although first-year student dropouts have gained non-stop attention from researchers in educational practices and theories worldwide, diverse previous studies utilized while-and/or post-semester factors, and/or questionnaires for predicting. These methods failed to offer universities early warning systems (EWS) and/or assist them in providing in-time assistance to dropouts, who face economic difficulties. This work provided universities with an EWS and extracted rules for early dropout prevention and intervention. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2050-7003 1758-1184 |
| DOI: | 10.1108/JARHE-10-2023-0461 |
