Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools
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| Title: | Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Ishtiaque Fazlul, Cory Koedel, Eric Parsons |
| Source: | Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. 2025 47(2):458-476. |
| Availability: | SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com |
| Peer Reviewed: | Y |
| Page Count: | 19 |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Document Type: | Journal Articles Reports - Research |
| Descriptors: | At Risk Students, Public Schools, Identification, Academic Achievement, Predictive Measurement, Measurement Techniques, Low Achievement |
| Geographic Terms: | Missouri |
| DOI: | 10.3102/01623737231212163 |
| ISSN: | 0162-3737 1935-1062 |
| Abstract: | Measures of student disadvantage--or risk--are critical components of equity-focused education policies. However, the risk measures used in contemporary policies have significant limitations, and despite continued advances in data infrastructure and analytic capacity, there has been little innovation in these measures for decades. We develop a new measure of student risk for use in education policies, which we call Predicted Academic Performance (PAP). PAP is a flexible, data-rich indicator that identifies students at risk of poor academic outcomes. It blends concepts from emerging early warning systems with principles of incentive design to balance the competing priorities of accurate risk measurement and suitability for policy use. In proof-of-concept policy simulations using data from Missouri, we show PAP is more effective than common alternatives at identifying students who are at risk of poor academic outcomes and can be used to target resources toward these students--and students who belong to several other associated risk categories--more efficiently. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2025 |
| Accession Number: | EJ1471330 |
| Database: | ERIC |
| Abstract: | Measures of student disadvantage--or risk--are critical components of equity-focused education policies. However, the risk measures used in contemporary policies have significant limitations, and despite continued advances in data infrastructure and analytic capacity, there has been little innovation in these measures for decades. We develop a new measure of student risk for use in education policies, which we call Predicted Academic Performance (PAP). PAP is a flexible, data-rich indicator that identifies students at risk of poor academic outcomes. It blends concepts from emerging early warning systems with principles of incentive design to balance the competing priorities of accurate risk measurement and suitability for policy use. In proof-of-concept policy simulations using data from Missouri, we show PAP is more effective than common alternatives at identifying students who are at risk of poor academic outcomes and can be used to target resources toward these students--and students who belong to several other associated risk categories--more efficiently. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 0162-3737 1935-1062 |
| DOI: | 10.3102/01623737231212163 |
