A Quantitative Method for Evaluating the Predictive Utility of Linked Scores
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| Title: | A Quantitative Method for Evaluating the Predictive Utility of Linked Scores |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Yoshikazu Sato (ORCID |
| Source: | Journal of Educational Measurement. 2025 62(4):907-928. |
| Availability: | Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us |
| Peer Reviewed: | Y |
| Page Count: | 22 |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Document Type: | Journal Articles Reports - Research |
| Education Level: | Higher Education Postsecondary Education |
| Descriptors: | College Entrance Examinations, Prediction, Monte Carlo Methods, Law Schools, Equated Scores, Accountability |
| Assessment and Survey Identifiers: | ACT Assessment, SAT (College Admission Test), Law School Admission Test |
| DOI: | 10.1111/jedm.70018 |
| ISSN: | 0022-0655 1745-3984 |
| Abstract: | In U.S. colleges, admissions officers tend to use ACT-SAT concordant scores, also known as linked scores, as predictions of individual scores for tests not taken. The major problem in this situation is the use of linked scores without thoroughly examining their predictive utility (i.e., the degree to which they serve as predicted scores at the individual level). To address this problem, we developed a method, referred to as the "predictive utility analysis," for quantitatively evaluating the prediction accuracy and error properties of linked scores. A Monte Carlo simulation provided several findings on the behavior of the indices formulated in this paper regarding the number of common examinees, the number of items, and the correlation between tests. Furthermore, we illustrated the predictive utility analysis in concordance and equating with the results of an actual large-scale test, the Japan Law School Admission Test. In both examples, we found that the linked scores obtained by using the equipercentile or linear equating method could be used as predictions of individual scores. Our findings suggest that the predictive utility analysis offers practical guidance for enhancing the use of linked scores as well as supporting institutional accountability. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2026 |
| Accession Number: | EJ1491553 |
| Database: | ERIC |
| Abstract: | In U.S. colleges, admissions officers tend to use ACT-SAT concordant scores, also known as linked scores, as predictions of individual scores for tests not taken. The major problem in this situation is the use of linked scores without thoroughly examining their predictive utility (i.e., the degree to which they serve as predicted scores at the individual level). To address this problem, we developed a method, referred to as the "predictive utility analysis," for quantitatively evaluating the prediction accuracy and error properties of linked scores. A Monte Carlo simulation provided several findings on the behavior of the indices formulated in this paper regarding the number of common examinees, the number of items, and the correlation between tests. Furthermore, we illustrated the predictive utility analysis in concordance and equating with the results of an actual large-scale test, the Japan Law School Admission Test. In both examples, we found that the linked scores obtained by using the equipercentile or linear equating method could be used as predictions of individual scores. Our findings suggest that the predictive utility analysis offers practical guidance for enhancing the use of linked scores as well as supporting institutional accountability. |
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| ISSN: | 0022-0655 1745-3984 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/jedm.70018 |
