Predicting Future Citation Behavior.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Predicting Future Citation Behavior.
Language: English
Authors: Burrell, Quentin L.
Source: Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology. Mar 2003 54(5):372-378.
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 7
Publication Date: 2003
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Descriptive
Descriptors: Citation Analysis, Futures (of Society), Mathematical Formulas, Models, Obsolescence, Predictive Measurement
Abstract: Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)
Entry Date: 2003
Accession Number: EJ671864
Database: ERIC
Description
Abstract:Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)