Incidencia de dengue y su relación con el índice oceánico de El Niño, como variable sensible para anticipar brotes en la región Caribe colombiana.

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Title:	Incidencia de dengue y su relación con el índice oceánico de El Niño, como variable sensible para anticipar brotes en la región Caribe colombiana.
Alternate Title:	Dengue incidence and its relationship with El Niño oceanic index, as a sensitive variable to anticipate outbreaks in the Colombian Caribbean region.
Authors:	Salazar-Ceballos, Alexander¹ alexander.salazarc@campusucc.edu.co, Álvarez-Miño, Lídice²
Source:	Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud. 2025 Special Issue, Vol. 45, p56-67. 12p.
Subjects:	DENGUE, EL Nino, GEOGRAPHICAL positions, CLIMATE change, OCEAN-atmosphere interaction, TEMPERATURE, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, HUMIDITY
Geographic Terms:	COLOMBIA, LATIN America, CARIBBEAN
Abstract (English):	Introduction. The Lancet Countdown 2023 report for Latin America indicates that rising temperatures influence the transmission of the dengue virus. In Colombia’s Caribbean region, a significant association has been identified between dengue incidence and climatic variables, such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Objective. To analyze the relationship between the incidence of dengue and the oceanic Niño index in the departments of the Colombian Caribbean region from 2021 to 2023. Materials and methods. An ecological time series study was conducted using distributed lag non-linear models and autoregressive integrated moving average models in the seven departments of the Caribbean region. Descriptive and autoregressive analyses were performed using JASP and RStudio. Non-linear and lagged analyses were run with the dlnmpackage in RStudio. Results. A positive and significant relationship between the oceanic Niño index and dengue incidence was found for 2023 data, the year when the El Niño - ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) warm phase occurred. Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, and Magdalena departments showed positive correlations. A non-linear relationship between El Niño/La Niña and dengue incidence was also observed, with a higher increase in dengue cases during El Niño events. Conclusions. The oceanic Niño index appears to be a useful climatic indicator for monitoring increases in the monthly dengue incidence rate in the analyzed departments of Colombia’s Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Abstract (Spanish):	Introducción. El informe Lancet Countdown 2023 para Latinoamérica indica que el aumento de las temperaturas influye en la transmisión del virus del dengue. En la región Caribe de Colombia, se ha identificado una asociación significativa entre la incidencia de dengue y variables climáticas, como la temperatura, la humedad y la precipitación. Objetivo. Analizar la relación entre la tasa de incidencia de dengue y el índice oceánico de El Niño en los departamentos de la región Caribe colombiana entre el 2021 y el 2023. Materiales y métodos. Se llevó a cabo un estudio ecológico de serie de tiempo, utilizando modelos de regresión no lineal con desfase y modelos autorregresivos integrados de media móvil en los siete departamentos de la región Caribe. Para los análisis descriptivos y los modelos autorregresivos, se emplearon los programas JASP y RStudio. Para los análisis no lineales y con desfase, se usó el paquete dlnm de RStudio. Resultados. Se encontró una relación positiva y significativa entre el índice oceánico de El Niño y la tasa de incidencia de dengue en el 2023, año en el que se presentó el fenómeno de El Niño. Los departamentos de Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba y Magdalena tuvieron correlaciones positivas. También, se observó una relación no lineal entre El Niño o La Niña y la incidencia de dengue, con un mayor impacto durante la fase de El Niño. Conclusiones. El índice oceánico de El Niño se presenta como un indicador climático útil para monitorear el aumento de casos de dengue en los departamentos analizados de la región Caribe colombiana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database:	MedicLatina

Description
Abstract:	Introduction. The Lancet Countdown 2023 report for Latin America indicates that rising temperatures influence the transmission of the dengue virus. In Colombia’s Caribbean region, a significant association has been identified between dengue incidence and climatic variables, such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Objective. To analyze the relationship between the incidence of dengue and the oceanic Niño index in the departments of the Colombian Caribbean region from 2021 to 2023. Materials and methods. An ecological time series study was conducted using distributed lag non-linear models and autoregressive integrated moving average models in the seven departments of the Caribbean region. Descriptive and autoregressive analyses were performed using JASP and RStudio. Non-linear and lagged analyses were run with the dlnmpackage in RStudio. Results. A positive and significant relationship between the oceanic Niño index and dengue incidence was found for 2023 data, the year when the El Niño - ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) warm phase occurred. Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, and Magdalena departments showed positive correlations. A non-linear relationship between El Niño/La Niña and dengue incidence was also observed, with a higher increase in dengue cases during El Niño events. Conclusions. The oceanic Niño index appears to be a useful climatic indicator for monitoring increases in the monthly dengue incidence rate in the analyzed departments of Colombia’s Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:	01204157
DOI:	10.7705/biomedica.7933