Spatial modeling of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Colombia under climate change scenarios.
Saved in:
| Title: | Spatial modeling of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Colombia under climate change scenarios. |
|---|---|
| Alternate Title: | Modelado espacial de las infecciones por helmintos transmitidos por el suelo en Colombia en caso de cambio climático. |
| Authors: | Olivera, Mario J.1,2 molivera@ins.gov.co, Porras-Villamil, Julián Felipe3, Fuente, Màrius Vicent2 |
| Source: | Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud. 2025 Special Issue, Vol. 45, p68-82. 15p. |
| Subjects: | CLIMATE change, PUBLIC health, HELMINTHIASIS, HOOKWORMS, ASCARIS lumbricoides, GEOGRAPHIC spatial analysis, WHIPWORMS |
| Geographic Terms: | COLOMBIA |
| Abstract (English): | Introduction. Soil-transmitted helminthiases remain a significant public health burden in Colombia, especially in rural and tropical areas. Climate change is expected to alter environmental conditions that favor the survival and transmission of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworms. Objective. To estimate the current spatial distribution of these infections and project prevalence changes by 2035 under climate change scenarios, with and without public health interventions. Materials and methods. An ecological study with spatial modeling was conducted, integrating epidemiological, climatic, and biological data. Baseline prevalence data were obtained from the Encuesta Nacional de Parasitismo Intestinal (2012-2014). Climate projections from the ERA5-Land satellite product (2024-2035) were used alongside generalized additive models to estimate environmental suitability. A systematic review defined optimal temperature and humidity thresholds for the development of infective stages. Two scenarios were modeled: one without intervention and another with mass drug administration and improved sanitation. Results. Baseline prevalence was 11.3% for A. lumbricoides, 18.4% for T. trichiura, and 6.4% for hookworms, with highest rates in Amazonia and the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. In a no-intervention scenario, projected prevalences increased to 13.6, 21.2, and 8.0%, respectively. The intervention scenario reduced these to 6.8%, 12.7%, and 5.6%. Temperature and humidity were strong positive predictors (p < 0.01), while altitude and forest cover showed negative associations. Conclusions. Climate change may intensify soil-transmitted helminthiases transmission in Colombia by 2035. However, sustained control strategies could significantly mitigate this impact. Spatial modeling offers a valuable tool to guide targeted interventions and inform public health planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Spanish): | Introducción. Las geohelmintiasis siguen siendo una carga importante para la salud pública en Colombia, especialmente en zonas rurales y tropicales. Se espera que el cambio climático modifique las condiciones ambientales que favorecen la supervivencia y la transmisión de Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura y uncinarias. Objetivo. Estimar la distribución espacial actual de estas infecciones y proyectar cambios en la prevalencia hacia 2035 con el cambio climático, con intervenciones en salud pública y sin ellas. Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con modelado espacial que integró datos epidemiológicos, climáticos y biológicos. La prevalencia basal provino de la Encuesta Nacional de Parasitismo Intestinal (2012-2014). Se utilizaron proyecciones climáticas del producto satelital ERA5-Land (2024-2035) y modelos aditivos generalizados para estimar la idoneidad ambiental. Se establecieron rangos óptimos de temperatura y humedad mediante una revisión sistemática. Se modelaron dos escenarios: sin intervención y con desparasitación masiva y mejoras en saneamiento. Resultados. La prevalencia basal fue de 11,3 % para A. lumbricoides, 18,4 % para T. trichiura y 6,4 % para uncinarias, con tasas más altas en la Amazonía y la Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Sin intervención, las prevalencias proyectadas aumentaron a 13,6, 21,2 y 8,0 %, respectivamente. Con intervención, se redujeron a 6,8, 12,7 y 5,6 %. La temperatura y humedad fueron predictores positivos significativos (p < 0,01), mientras que la altitud y la cobertura boscosa mostraron asociaciones negativas. Conclusiones. El cambio climático podría intensificar la transmisión de las geohelmintiasis en Colombia hacia el 2035, pero las estrategias sostenidas de control pueden mitigar este impacto. El modelado espacial es una herramienta útil para planificar intervenciones focalizadas en salud pública. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud is the property of Instituto Nacional de Salud of Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | MedicLatina |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
|---|---|
| Header | DbId: lth DbLabel: MedicLatina An: 190594662 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
| IllustrationInfo | |
| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Spatial modeling of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Colombia under climate change scenarios. – Name: TitleAlt Label: Alternate Title Group: TiAlt Data: Modelado espacial de las infecciones por helmintos transmitidos por el suelo en Colombia en caso de cambio climático. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Olivera%2C+Mario+J%2E%22">Olivera, Mario J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><i> molivera@ins.gov.co</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Porras-Villamil%2C+Julián+Felipe%22">Porras-Villamil, Julián Felipe</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fuente%2C+Màrius+Vicent%22">Fuente, Màrius Vicent</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Biomédica%3A+Revista+del+Instituto+Nacional+de+Salud%22">Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud</searchLink>. 2025 Special Issue, Vol. 45, p68-82. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22CLIMATE+change%22">CLIMATE change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22PUBLIC+health%22">PUBLIC health</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HELMINTHIASIS%22">HELMINTHIASIS</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HOOKWORMS%22">HOOKWORMS</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ASCARIS+lumbricoides%22">ASCARIS lumbricoides</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22GEOGRAPHIC+spatial+analysis%22">GEOGRAPHIC spatial analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22WHIPWORMS%22">WHIPWORMS</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22COLOMBIA%22">COLOMBIA</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (English) Group: Ab Data: Introduction. Soil-transmitted helminthiases remain a significant public health burden in Colombia, especially in rural and tropical areas. Climate change is expected to alter environmental conditions that favor the survival and transmission of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworms. Objective. To estimate the current spatial distribution of these infections and project prevalence changes by 2035 under climate change scenarios, with and without public health interventions. Materials and methods. An ecological study with spatial modeling was conducted, integrating epidemiological, climatic, and biological data. Baseline prevalence data were obtained from the Encuesta Nacional de Parasitismo Intestinal (2012-2014). Climate projections from the ERA5-Land satellite product (2024-2035) were used alongside generalized additive models to estimate environmental suitability. A systematic review defined optimal temperature and humidity thresholds for the development of infective stages. Two scenarios were modeled: one without intervention and another with mass drug administration and improved sanitation. Results. Baseline prevalence was 11.3% for A. lumbricoides, 18.4% for T. trichiura, and 6.4% for hookworms, with highest rates in Amazonia and the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. In a no-intervention scenario, projected prevalences increased to 13.6, 21.2, and 8.0%, respectively. The intervention scenario reduced these to 6.8%, 12.7%, and 5.6%. Temperature and humidity were strong positive predictors (p < 0.01), while altitude and forest cover showed negative associations. Conclusions. Climate change may intensify soil-transmitted helminthiases transmission in Colombia by 2035. However, sustained control strategies could significantly mitigate this impact. Spatial modeling offers a valuable tool to guide targeted interventions and inform public health planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (Spanish) Group: Ab Data: Introducción. Las geohelmintiasis siguen siendo una carga importante para la salud pública en Colombia, especialmente en zonas rurales y tropicales. Se espera que el cambio climático modifique las condiciones ambientales que favorecen la supervivencia y la transmisión de Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura y uncinarias. Objetivo. Estimar la distribución espacial actual de estas infecciones y proyectar cambios en la prevalencia hacia 2035 con el cambio climático, con intervenciones en salud pública y sin ellas. Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con modelado espacial que integró datos epidemiológicos, climáticos y biológicos. La prevalencia basal provino de la Encuesta Nacional de Parasitismo Intestinal (2012-2014). Se utilizaron proyecciones climáticas del producto satelital ERA5-Land (2024-2035) y modelos aditivos generalizados para estimar la idoneidad ambiental. Se establecieron rangos óptimos de temperatura y humedad mediante una revisión sistemática. Se modelaron dos escenarios: sin intervención y con desparasitación masiva y mejoras en saneamiento. Resultados. La prevalencia basal fue de 11,3 % para A. lumbricoides, 18,4 % para T. trichiura y 6,4 % para uncinarias, con tasas más altas en la Amazonía y la Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Sin intervención, las prevalencias proyectadas aumentaron a 13,6, 21,2 y 8,0 %, respectivamente. Con intervención, se redujeron a 6,8, 12,7 y 5,6 %. La temperatura y humedad fueron predictores positivos significativos (p < 0,01), mientras que la altitud y la cobertura boscosa mostraron asociaciones negativas. Conclusiones. El cambio climático podría intensificar la transmisión de las geohelmintiasis en Colombia hacia el 2035, pero las estrategias sostenidas de control pueden mitigar este impacto. El modelado espacial es una herramienta útil para planificar intervenciones focalizadas en salud pública. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud is the property of Instituto Nacional de Salud of Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=lth&AN=190594662 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.7705/biomedica.7965 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 68 Subjects: – SubjectFull: CLIMATE change Type: general – SubjectFull: PUBLIC health Type: general – SubjectFull: HELMINTHIASIS Type: general – SubjectFull: HOOKWORMS Type: general – SubjectFull: ASCARIS lumbricoides Type: general – SubjectFull: GEOGRAPHIC spatial analysis Type: general – SubjectFull: WHIPWORMS Type: general – SubjectFull: COLOMBIA Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Spatial modeling of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Colombia under climate change scenarios. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Olivera, Mario J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Porras-Villamil, Julián Felipe – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Fuente, Màrius Vicent IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 02 M: 12 Text: 2025 Special Issue Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 01204157 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 45 Titles: – TitleFull: Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
