Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: conditions for valid inference and practical illustration.

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Title: Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: conditions for valid inference and practical illustration.
Authors: Meijerink LM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands. l.m.meijerink-20@umcutrecht.nl., Leeuwenberg AM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Choi J; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Penning de Vries BBL; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Langendijk JA; Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands., van Loon JGM; MAASTRO Clinic, Doctor Tanslaan 12, 6229 ET, Maastricht, The Netherlands., Nout RA; Department of Radiotherapy, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Dr Molewaterplein 40, 3015 GD, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Moons KGM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Schuit E; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Source: Diagnostic and prognostic research [Diagn Progn Res] 2026 Jul 24; Vol. 10 (1). Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jul 24.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Journal Info: Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101718985 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2397-7523 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 23977523 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Diagn Progn Res Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
Database: MEDLINE Ultimate
Description
ISSN:2397-7523
DOI:10.1186/s41512-026-00233-y