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Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: conditions for valid inference and practical illustration.

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Title: Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: conditions for valid inference and practical illustration.
Authors: Meijerink LM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands. l.m.meijerink-20@umcutrecht.nl., Leeuwenberg AM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Choi J; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Penning de Vries BBL; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Langendijk JA; Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands., van Loon JGM; MAASTRO Clinic, Doctor Tanslaan 12, 6229 ET, Maastricht, The Netherlands., Nout RA; Department of Radiotherapy, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Dr Molewaterplein 40, 3015 GD, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Moons KGM; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Schuit E; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Source: Diagnostic and prognostic research [Diagn Progn Res] 2026 Jul 24; Vol. 10 (1). Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Jul 24.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Journal Info: Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101718985 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2397-7523 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 23977523 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Diagn Progn Res Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
Database: MEDLINE Ultimate
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Meijerink+LM%22">Meijerink LM</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands. l.m.meijerink-20@umcutrecht.nl.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Leeuwenberg+AM%22">Leeuwenberg AM</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Choi+J%22">Choi J</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Penning+de+Vries+BBL%22">Penning de Vries BBL</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Langendijk+JA%22">Langendijk JA</searchLink>; Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22van+Loon+JGM%22">van Loon JGM</searchLink>; MAASTRO Clinic, Doctor Tanslaan 12, 6229 ET, Maastricht, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Nout+RA%22">Nout RA</searchLink>; Department of Radiotherapy, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Dr Molewaterplein 40, 3015 GD, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Moons+KGM%22">Moons KGM</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Schuit+E%22">Schuit E</searchLink>; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22101718985%22">Diagnostic and prognostic research</searchLink> [Diagn Progn Res] 2026 Jul 24; Vol. 10 (1). <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2026 Jul 24.
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  Data: <i>Publisher: </i><searchLink fieldCode="PB" term="%22BioMed+Central%22">BioMed Central </searchLink><i>Country of Publication: </i>England <i>NLM ID: </i>101718985 <i>Publication Model: </i>Electronic <i>Cited Medium: </i>Internet <i>ISSN: </i>2397-7523 (Electronic) <i>Linking ISSN: </i><searchLink fieldCode="IS" term="%2223977523%22">23977523 </searchLink><i>NLM ISO Abbreviation: </i>Diagn Progn Res <i>Subsets: </i>PubMed not MEDLINE
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        Value: 10.1186/s41512-026-00233-y
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              Text: 2026 Jul 24
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