Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.
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| Title: | Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities. |
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| Authors: | Dalziel, Benjamin D. (AUTHOR), Kissler, Stephen (AUTHOR), Gog, Julia R. (AUTHOR), Viboud, Cecile (AUTHOR), Bjørnstad, Ottar N. (AUTHOR), Metcalf, C. Jessica E. (AUTHOR), Grenfell, Bryan T. (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Science (pre-March 2025). 10/5/2018, Vol. 362 Issue 6410, p75-79. 5p. 3 Diagrams. |
| Subjects: | Epidemics, Influenza, Urbanization, Viral evolution, Cities & towns, Disease incidence, Population density |
| Geographic Terms: | United States |
| Abstract: | Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse. Base transmission potential estimated from city-level incidence data is positively correlated with population size and with spatiotemporal organization in population density, indicating a milder response to climate forcing in metropolises. This suggests that urban centers incubate critical chains of transmission outside of peak climatic conditions, altering the spatiotemporal geometry of herd immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Science (pre-March 2025) is the property of American Association for the Advancement of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse. Base transmission potential estimated from city-level incidence data is positively correlated with population size and with spatiotemporal organization in population density, indicating a milder response to climate forcing in metropolises. This suggests that urban centers incubate critical chains of transmission outside of peak climatic conditions, altering the spatiotemporal geometry of herd immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00368075 |
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.aat6030 |
