Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.
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| Title: | Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. |
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| Authors: | Salje, Henrik, Kiem, Cécile Tran, Lefrancq, Noémie, Courtejoie, Noémie, Bosetti, Paolo, Paireau, Juliette, Andronico, Alessio, Hozé, Nathanaël, Richet, Jehanne, Dubost, Claire-Lise, Strat, Yann Le, Lessler, Justin, Levy-Bruhl, Daniel, Fontanet, Arnaud, Opatowski, Lulla, Boelle, Pierre-Yves, Cauchemez, Simon |
| Source: | Science (pre-March 2025). 7/10/2020, Vol. 369 Issue 6500, p208-211. 4p. 4 Diagrams. |
| Subjects: | SARS disease, COVID-19 pandemic, Stay-at-home orders, Immunity, Herd immunity |
| Abstract: | France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Science (pre-March 2025) is the property of American Association for the Advancement of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00368075 |
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.abc3517 |
