A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares.
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| Title: | A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares. |
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| Authors: | Kusano, Kanya, Iju, Tomoya, Bamba, Yumi, Inoue, Satoshi |
| Source: | Science (pre-March 2025). 7/31/2020, Vol. 369 Issue 6503, p587-591. 5p. 4 Diagrams. |
| Subjects: | Solar flares, Magnetohydrodynamics, Umpolung, Actinic flux, Magnetic reconnection |
| Abstract: | Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun’s corona that affect Earth’s space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the k-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the k-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Science (pre-March 2025) is the property of American Association for the Advancement of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun’s corona that affect Earth’s space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the k-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the k-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00368075 |
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.aaz2511 |
