Does Analyst Optimism Fuel Stock Price Momentum?
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| Title: | Does Analyst Optimism Fuel Stock Price Momentum? |
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| Authors: | Lockwood, Jimmy (AUTHOR), Lockwood, Larry (AUTHOR), Miao, Hong (AUTHOR), Uddin, Mohammad Riaz (AUTHOR), Li, Keming (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Behavioral Finance. Oct-Dec2023, Vol. 24 Issue 4, p411-427. 17p. |
| Subjects: | Behavior analysts, Securities analysts, Optimism, Investors, Cognitive bias, Surcharges |
| Abstract: | Researchers have struggled to find rational risk factors that explain momentum profits derived from buying recent winners and shorting recent losers. Behavioral explanations have been offered that focus on the tendencies of investors to underreact to news and recommendations. Our study provides an alternative explanation centered on the behavior of sell-side analysts. We find a change in consensus recommendation from a hold to a buy is accompanied by an increase in momentum profits of 3.40% annually. Momentum profits fall, yet remain material, after the passage of Reg FD and the enactment of the Global Analyst Research Settlement. Our results support a behavioral explanation of investor cognitive biases fueled by analyst regency and optimism biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | Researchers have struggled to find rational risk factors that explain momentum profits derived from buying recent winners and shorting recent losers. Behavioral explanations have been offered that focus on the tendencies of investors to underreact to news and recommendations. Our study provides an alternative explanation centered on the behavior of sell-side analysts. We find a change in consensus recommendation from a hold to a buy is accompanied by an increase in momentum profits of 3.40% annually. Momentum profits fall, yet remain material, after the passage of Reg FD and the enactment of the Global Analyst Research Settlement. Our results support a behavioral explanation of investor cognitive biases fueled by analyst regency and optimism biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 15427560 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/15427560.2022.2025595 |
