Partisan Polarization Mitigates Economic Voting in US Presidential Elections, 1952–2020: Implications for 2024.
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| Title: | Partisan Polarization Mitigates Economic Voting in US Presidential Elections, 1952–2020: Implications for 2024. |
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| Authors: | Ellis, Christopher R. (AUTHOR), Ura, Joseph Daniel (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell). May2025, Vol. 106 Issue 3, p1-4. 4p. |
| Subjects: | Polarization (Social sciences), United States presidential election, 2024, Presidential elections, Polarization (Economics), Election forecasting, Voting |
| Abstract: | Objective: Ellis and Ura report that partisan polarization moderates the relationship between economic performance and incumbent party nominees' two‐party vote share in US presidential elections between 1952 and 2016. We update their model to include the results of the 2020 election and generate forecasts for the 2024 election based on contemporary political‐economic conditions. Methods: We re‐estimate Ellis and Ura's polarized times model of incumbent party vote shares in presidential elections, incorporating the results of the 2020 contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The model includes an interaction term between national partisan polarization and economic growth, indicating the extent to which partisan polarization moderates the influence of economic performance on voting in presidential elections. Results: Greater partisan polarization attenuates the association between economic performance and voting in presidential elections. Incorporating data from the 2020 election does not appreciably change the polarized times model's point estimates or the substantive implications of the 1952–2016 results Ellis and Ura report. Conclusion: Higher partisan polarization weakens the influence of economic performance on presidential election outcomes. In the 2024 presidential election, the political‐economic fundamentals favor the Republican Party nominee, Donald Trump, to a greater extent than they would if lower levels of partisan polarization prevailed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | Objective: Ellis and Ura report that partisan polarization moderates the relationship between economic performance and incumbent party nominees' two‐party vote share in US presidential elections between 1952 and 2016. We update their model to include the results of the 2020 election and generate forecasts for the 2024 election based on contemporary political‐economic conditions. Methods: We re‐estimate Ellis and Ura's polarized times model of incumbent party vote shares in presidential elections, incorporating the results of the 2020 contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The model includes an interaction term between national partisan polarization and economic growth, indicating the extent to which partisan polarization moderates the influence of economic performance on voting in presidential elections. Results: Greater partisan polarization attenuates the association between economic performance and voting in presidential elections. Incorporating data from the 2020 election does not appreciably change the polarized times model's point estimates or the substantive implications of the 1952–2016 results Ellis and Ura report. Conclusion: Higher partisan polarization weakens the influence of economic performance on presidential election outcomes. In the 2024 presidential election, the political‐economic fundamentals favor the Republican Party nominee, Donald Trump, to a greater extent than they would if lower levels of partisan polarization prevailed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00384941 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ssqu.70034 |
