In Pursuit of Advanced Foresight: A Brief Survey of the Kremlin’s Military Decision-Making Process.

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Bibliographic Details
Title:	In Pursuit of Advanced Foresight: A Brief Survey of the Kremlin’s Military Decision-Making Process.
Authors:	Van Dyke, Carl
Source:	Military Review. Mar/Apr2026, Vol. 106 Issue 2, p6-17. 12p.
Subjects:	Command of troops, Cognitive psychology, Military technology, Russian armed forces, Situational awareness
Geographic Terms:	Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)
Abstract:	The article focuses on the Kremlin’s pursuit of advanced foresight through its formal military decision-making process (MDMP), centered on the National Defence Command Center (NTsUO) established in 2014. The NTsUO integrates five cognitive mechanisms—episodic and semantic memory, pattern recognition, threat assessment, scenario simulation and hypothesis testing, and executive control—to enhance rapid and effective decision-making. Rooted in historical Russian administrative and military traditions, the MDMP employs centralized command, standardized data protocols, and vertical information flow, supported by extensive databases such as the Unified System of Raw Data (ESID) and the Electronic Library of Historical Documents (EBID). The Kremlin’s situational awareness relies on the military-political situation (VPO) assessments, visual tools like working maps and decision matrices, and structured group discussions and war-gaming exercises, all increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence and digital systems. The article also highlights enduring Russian concepts of edinonachalie (unified command) and vzaimodeistviie (coordination/network-centric behavior) as foundational yet paradoxically challenged by AI’s influence on decision-making processes. [Extracted from the article]
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Database:	Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection

Description
Abstract:	The article focuses on the Kremlin’s pursuit of advanced foresight through its formal military decision-making process (MDMP), centered on the National Defence Command Center (NTsUO) established in 2014. The NTsUO integrates five cognitive mechanisms—episodic and semantic memory, pattern recognition, threat assessment, scenario simulation and hypothesis testing, and executive control—to enhance rapid and effective decision-making. Rooted in historical Russian administrative and military traditions, the MDMP employs centralized command, standardized data protocols, and vertical information flow, supported by extensive databases such as the Unified System of Raw Data (ESID) and the Electronic Library of Historical Documents (EBID). The Kremlin’s situational awareness relies on the military-political situation (VPO) assessments, visual tools like working maps and decision matrices, and structured group discussions and war-gaming exercises, all increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence and digital systems. The article also highlights enduring Russian concepts of edinonachalie (unified command) and vzaimodeistviie (coordination/network-centric behavior) as foundational yet paradoxically challenged by AI’s influence on decision-making processes. [Extracted from the article]
ISSN:	00264148