Los capitales de cartera en la restricción externa al crecimiento económico: los casos del Brasil y México.

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Bibliographic Details
Title:	Los capitales de cartera en la restricción externa al crecimiento económico: los casos del Brasil y México. (Spanish).
Authors:	Mejía Solís, Gladis Eunice, Carlos Moreno-Brid, Juan
Source:	Revista de la CEPAL. abr2026, Issue 148, p105-125. 21p.
Subjects:	STOCKS (Finance), EXTERNAL debts, COUNTRIES, ECONOMIC expansion
Geographic Terms:	BRAZIL, MEXICO
Abstract (English):	The article analyzes the role of portfolio capital in the external constraint on economic growth, focusing on the cases of Brazil and Mexico during 1995-2019. Starting from Thirlwall's law and its extension by Moreno-Brid (2003), which incorporates the payment of interest on external debt, a modification is proposed that includes the impact of interest and dividend payments to portfolio capital, a type of short-term and highly volatile financial flow. Through an econometric analysis with quarterly series and cointegration models, it is confirmed that in Mexico the Moreno-Brid version better explains the external constraint, while in Brazil the new extension that considers portfolio capital is more relevant. The study concludes that these recurring payments to portfolio capital and external debt exacerbate the external constraint on growth, posing challenges for the financial sustainability and economic development of both countries. [Extracted from the article]
Abstract (Spanish):	La hipótesis de la restricción externa al crecimiento económico expresada en la ley de Thirlwall fue un parteaguas en el análisis de los determinantes de dicho crecimiento en las economías abiertas. Las extensiones posteriores ampliaron el alcance analítico de la ley al incorporar la entrada de flujos de capitales para financiar un déficit sostenible en cuenta corriente y capturar la salida de divisas para el pago de intereses de la deuda externa. En este sentido, debido a la creciente importancia de los capitales de cartera en el financiamiento de la cuenta corriente, modificamos la ley en la versión de Moreno-Brid (2003) y ponemos el foco en la salida de divisas para el pago de intereses y dividendos a los capitales de cartera. La adecuación empírica de esta modificación se prueba a partir de los casos del Brasil y México, utilizando series trimestrales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database:	Referencia Latina

Description
Abstract:	The article analyzes the role of portfolio capital in the external constraint on economic growth, focusing on the cases of Brazil and Mexico during 1995-2019. Starting from Thirlwall's law and its extension by Moreno-Brid (2003), which incorporates the payment of interest on external debt, a modification is proposed that includes the impact of interest and dividend payments to portfolio capital, a type of short-term and highly volatile financial flow. Through an econometric analysis with quarterly series and cointegration models, it is confirmed that in Mexico the Moreno-Brid version better explains the external constraint, while in Brazil the new extension that considers portfolio capital is more relevant. The study concludes that these recurring payments to portfolio capital and external debt exacerbate the external constraint on growth, posing challenges for the financial sustainability and economic development of both countries. [Extracted from the article]
ISSN:	02520257