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Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools

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Title: Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools
Language: English
Authors: Ishtiaque Fazlul, Cory Koedel, Eric Parsons
Source: Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. 2025 47(2):458-476.
Availability: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 19
Publication Date: 2025
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: At Risk Students, Public Schools, Identification, Academic Achievement, Predictive Measurement, Measurement Techniques, Low Achievement
Geographic Terms: Missouri
DOI: 10.3102/01623737231212163
ISSN: 0162-3737
1935-1062
Abstract: Measures of student disadvantage--or risk--are critical components of equity-focused education policies. However, the risk measures used in contemporary policies have significant limitations, and despite continued advances in data infrastructure and analytic capacity, there has been little innovation in these measures for decades. We develop a new measure of student risk for use in education policies, which we call Predicted Academic Performance (PAP). PAP is a flexible, data-rich indicator that identifies students at risk of poor academic outcomes. It blends concepts from emerging early warning systems with principles of incentive design to balance the competing priorities of accurate risk measurement and suitability for policy use. In proof-of-concept policy simulations using data from Missouri, we show PAP is more effective than common alternatives at identifying students who are at risk of poor academic outcomes and can be used to target resources toward these students--and students who belong to several other associated risk categories--more efficiently.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2025
Accession Number: EJ1471330
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ishtiaque+Fazlul%22">Ishtiaque Fazlul</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cory+Koedel%22">Cory Koedel</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Eric+Parsons%22">Eric Parsons</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Educational+Evaluation+and+Policy+Analysis%22"><i>Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis</i></searchLink>. 2025 47(2):458-476.
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  Data: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22At+Risk+Students%22">At Risk Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+Schools%22">Public Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Identification%22">Identification</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Academic+Achievement%22">Academic Achievement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Predictive+Measurement%22">Predictive Measurement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Measurement+Techniques%22">Measurement Techniques</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Low+Achievement%22">Low Achievement</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Missouri%22">Missouri</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.3102/01623737231212163
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  Data: Measures of student disadvantage--or risk--are critical components of equity-focused education policies. However, the risk measures used in contemporary policies have significant limitations, and despite continued advances in data infrastructure and analytic capacity, there has been little innovation in these measures for decades. We develop a new measure of student risk for use in education policies, which we call Predicted Academic Performance (PAP). PAP is a flexible, data-rich indicator that identifies students at risk of poor academic outcomes. It blends concepts from emerging early warning systems with principles of incentive design to balance the competing priorities of accurate risk measurement and suitability for policy use. In proof-of-concept policy simulations using data from Missouri, we show PAP is more effective than common alternatives at identifying students who are at risk of poor academic outcomes and can be used to target resources toward these students--and students who belong to several other associated risk categories--more efficiently.
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      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 19
        StartPage: 458
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: At Risk Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Public Schools
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Identification
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Academic Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Predictive Measurement
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      – SubjectFull: Measurement Techniques
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      – SubjectFull: Low Achievement
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Missouri
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools
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            NameFull: Ishtiaque Fazlul
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            NameFull: Eric Parsons
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              Y: 2025
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